WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM SONAMU (AURING) UPDATE NUMBER 009
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday 05 Jan 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday 06 Jan 2013
Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) continues to move across the South China Sea...rainbands spreading across Southern Vietnam.
Residents and visitors along Southern Vietnam, Western Malaysia and Southern Thailand should closely monitor the development of Sonamu (Auring).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6 pm today, the center of Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) was located over the South China Sea...about 531 km southwest of Pagasa Island, Spratlys or 520 km south-southeast of Nha Trang City, Vietnam...currently moving west with a forward speed of 15 km/hr in the general direction of the South China Sea-Gulf of Thailand Area.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 120 kilometers from the center. Yesterday morning, a WeatherPhilippines/Meteomedia Automated Weather Station (AWS) situated in Barangay Rio Tuba in the municipality of Bataraza, Southern Palawan has recorded wind gusts of 46 km/hr blowing from the southeast at 7:00 AM...and a low atmospheric pressure reading of 996 millibars at 3:10 AM. Meanwhile, the 24 rainfall accumulation recorded on that station was at 144 millimeters, which is considered extreme. Sonamu (Auring) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 390 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center and to the northwest of TS Sonamu is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) is expected to continue moving west-southwest throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Sonamu (Auring) is expected to move across the South China Sea through Monday evening...and should be approaching the Western Malaysian & Southern Thailand coastlines on Tuesday evening.
Sonamu (Auring) is forecast to briefly strengthen to 85 kph on Sunday morning...before losing strength to 75 kph on Sunday evening...and 65-kph on Tuesday evening.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
SUNDAY EVENING: Starts to lose strength while moving west-southwest across the South China Sea...about 418 km south-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam [6PM JAN 06: 7.2N 107.8E @ 75kph].
MONDAY EVENING: Continues losing strenth as it moves towards Western Malaysia and Southern Thailand Coastlines...about 293 km east-northeast of the Malaysian-Thailand Border [6PM JAN 07: 6.7N 104.7E @ 65kph].
TUESDAY EVENING: Just along the coast of Western Malaysia and Southern Thailand...about 102 km east of the Malaysian-Thailand Border [6PM JAN 08: 6.4N 103.0E @ 65kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the coastal areas of Southern Vietnam. Tropical Depression Conditions with light to moderate winds (05-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the developing rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near, north and west of the center of TS Sonamu (Auring).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sat January 05, 2013
Class/Name: TS Sonamu (Auring)
Location of Center: 7.8º N Lat 110.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 520 km (SSE) from Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 2: 531 km (SW) away from Pagasa Is., Spratlys
Distance 3: 560 km (SE) from Ho Chi Minh City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: West @ 15 kph
Towards: South China Sea-Gulf of Thailand Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 390 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS SONAMU (AURING)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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