WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SONAMU (AURING) UPDATE NUMBER 016
Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday 08 Jan 2013
Next Update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Tuesday 08 Jan 2013
Sonamu (Auring) just a Tropical Depression...barely moving over the South China Sea.
Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) maintaining heavy convective rainclouds off the Celebes Sea and Southern Mindanao. Its weak center was located about 282 km southeast of Mati City, Davao Oriental (5.0N Lat 128.0E Lon)...with maximum winds of 30 km/hr near the center and was moving westward slowly. This disturbance has a low chance (<30%) of developing into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours, however, its rainbands together with the active Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) will continue to bring moderate to heavy rains with thunderstorms along Mindanao especially South Cotabato, Caraga and Davao Region today.
Residents and visitors along Eastern Malaysia should closely monitor the development of Sonamu (Auring).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6 AM today, the center of Tropical Depression Sonamu (Auring) was located over the South China Sea...about 559 km south-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam or 698 km south-southwest of Nha Trang, Vietnam...currently moving southward with a very slow forward speed of 2 km/hr in the general direction of the South China Sea.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 55 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Sonamu (Auring) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 390 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center and to the west of TS Sonamu is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).
1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) is expected to continue drifting south to south-southeast during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Sonamu (Auring) should just remain over the open waters of the South China Sea through Wednesday.
Sonamu (Auring) is forecast to weaken and dissipate into an area of low pressure on Wednesday.
The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Just a weak Tropical Depression while moving slowly south-southwest across the South China Sea...about 693 km south-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam [6AM JAN 09: 4.8N 108.4E @ 45kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the coastal areas of Southern Vietnam. Tropical Depression Conditions with light to moderate winds (05-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near, north and west of the center of TD Sonamu (Auring).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Tue January 08, 2013
Class/Name: TD Sonamu (Auring)
Location of Center: 6.0º N Lat 108.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 559 km (SSE) from Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
Distance 2: 698 km (SSE) from Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 789 km (ENE) from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph
Present Movement: South @ 02 kph
Towards: South China Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 390 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD SONAMU (AURING)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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