WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (LPA) STORMWATCH NUMBER 001
Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday 10 Jan 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday 10 Jan 2013
Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) consolidating its broad rainbands across the Southern Philippine Sea...moving northward slowly. Moderate to heavy rains affecting Visayas and Mindanao.
This disturbance will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring 15-35 km/hr winds with "on-and-off" slight, moderate to heavy rains across the Bicol Region, Southern and Eastern Luzon beginning tonight.
Residents and visitors along Mindanao, Visayas and Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of 94W (LPA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 12 noon today, the center of Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) was located over the Philippine Sea...about 287 km southeast of Mati City, Davao Oriental or 321 km south-southeast of Cateel, Davao Oriental...currently moving slowly north with a forward speed of 09 km/hr in the general direction of Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 35 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 94W is estimated to be heavy (300 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) is expected to move north-northwest to northwestward during the next 24 to 48 hours...with a gradual turn to the north throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of 94W (LPA) will pass near the eastern coast of Surigao Provinces on Friday noon...cross Samar on Saturday morning...and should be off the eastern coast of Sorsogon Saturday noon. By Saturday evening, the disturbance shall be passing over Catanduanes...and move across the Philippine Sea around Sunday noon, hundreds of kilometers to the east of Aurora.
94W is forecast to maintain its strength through the next 3 days.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
FRIDAY NOON: Near Dinagat Islands...about 132 km east-northeast of Surigao City [12PM JAN 11: 9.9N 126.7E @ 35kph].
SATURDAY NOON: Near the coastal areas of Northern Samar and Sorsogon...about 59 km east-southeast of Sorsogon City [12PM JAN 12: 12.8N 124.5E @ 35kph].
SUNDAY NOON: Turns northward as it accelerates across the Philippine Sea...about 300 km east-northeast of Casiguran, Aurora [12PM JAN 13: 16.4N 124.9E @ 35kph].
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the whole of Mindanao and Visayas. Tropical Disturbance Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (05-50 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 300 mm (heavy) along areas near and to the north, and west of the center of 94W (LPA).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Thu January 10, 2013
Class/Name: LPA 94W
Location of Center: 5.6º N Lat 126.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 287 km (SE) from Mati City
Distance 2: 321 km (SSE) from Cateel, Davao Oriental
Distance 3: 361 km (SE) from Metro Davao
Distance 4: 369 km (ESE) from General Santos City
Distance 5: 572 km (SSE) from Surigao City
Distance 6: 732 km (SSE) from Tacloban City
Distance 7: 749 km (SSE) from Borongan City
Distance 8: 986 km (SSE) from Legazpi City
Distance 9: 1,006 km (SSE) from Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 10: 1,062 km (SSE) from Metro Naga
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 35 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 55 kph
Present Movement: North @ 09 kph
Towards: Eastern Visayas & Bicol Region
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [300 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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