Sunday, January 06, 2013

TS SONAMU (AURING) Update #011


for Sunday, 06 January 2013 [1:13 PM PhT]


Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Sunday 06 Jan 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday 06 Jan 2013

Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) has slowed down further while over the South China Sea. Rainbands continues to spread across the coastal areas of Southern Vietnam.

Residents and visitors along Southern Vietnam, Western Malaysia and Southern Thailand should closely monitor the development of Sonamu (Auring).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 12 noon today, the center of Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) was located over the South China Sea...about 533 km southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam or 649 km southwest of Pagasa Island, Spratlys...currently moving very slowly westward with a forward speed of 5 km/hr in the general direction of the South China Sea.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 85 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 120 kilometers from the center. Sonamu (Auring) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 390 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center and to the west of TS Sonamu is estimated to be extreme (450 mm).


Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) is expected to move west-southwest slowly during the next 24 to 48 hours...with a drift to the south throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Sonamu (Auring) should remain over the South China Sea through Wednesday noon.

Sonamu (Auring) is forecast to hold its strength until this afternoon...before it starts to decay slowly through the next three days. It is likely to weaken into a minimal Tropical Storm on Tuesday noon.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY NOON: Starts to lose strength while moving west-southwest across the South China Sea...about 439 km south-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam [12PM JAN 07: 6.9N 107.3E @ 75kph].
TUESDAY NOON: Continues losing strength as it remains over the South China Sea, turns southwestward...about 343 km east-northeast of the Malaysian-Thailand Border [12PM JAN 08: 6.3N 105.2E @ 65kph].
WEDNESDAY NOON: Just barely a Tropical Storm, nears the coastal areas of Western Malaysia, turns southward...about 385 km northeast of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia [12PM JAN 09: 5.5N 104.3E @ 65kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the coastal areas of Southern Vietnam and Spratly Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions with light to moderate winds (05-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 450 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near, north and west of the center of TS Sonamu (Auring).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Sun January 06, 2013
Class/Name: TS Sonamu (Auring)
Location of Center: 7.2º N Lat 109.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 533 km (SE) from Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
Distance 2: 561 km (SSE) from Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 649 km (SW) away from Pagasa Is., Spratlys
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph
Present Movement: West @ 5 kph
Towards: South China Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [450 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 390 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS SONAMU (AURING)...go visit our website @:


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