WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (LPA) STORMWATCH NUMBER 003
Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday 11 Jan 2013
Next Update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Friday 11 Jan 2013
Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) remains broad and disorganized...begins its northward track across the Philippine Sea. Rainbands continues to affect Eastern Visayas, Eastern Mindanao and the Bicol Region.
This disturbance will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring 15-35 km/hr winds with "on-and-off" slight, moderate to sometimes heavy rains across Northern and Western Visayas, Southern and Eastern Luzon today.
Residents and visitors along Visayas, Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of 94W (LPA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6 AM today, the center of Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) was located over the Southern Philippine Sea...about 297 km east of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur or 281 km east-northeast of Cateel, Davao Oriental...currently moving northward with a forward speed of 15 km/hr.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 35 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 94W is estimated to be heavy (300 mm).
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) is expected to move faster north-northwest to northward during the next 12 to 24 hours...with a gradual turn to the north and northeast throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of 94W (LPA) will pass near the eastern coast of Northern Samar on Saturday morning...pass near the east coast of Catanduanes on Saturday afternoon...and should be off the northern part of the Philippine Sea on Sunday morning...hundreds of kilometers to the east of Northern Cagayan.
94W is forecast to maintain its strength through the next 2 days.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:
SATURDAY MORNING: Near the east coast of Northern Samar...about 239 km east of Catarman, Northern Samar [6AM JAN 12: 12.4N 126.8E @ 35kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Over the open waters of the North Philippine Sea...about 279 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan [6AM JAN 13: 17.7N 124.7E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the whole of Northern & Eastern Mindanao, Eastern & Central Visayas...and Bicol Region. Tropical Disturbance Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (05-50 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 300 mm (heavy) along areas near and to the north, and west of the center of 94W (LPA).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Fri January 11, 2013
Class/Name: LPA 94W
Location of Center: 8.2º N Lat 129.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 297 km (E) from Bislig City
Distance 2: 281 km (ENE) from Cateel, Davao Oriental
Distance 3: 393 km (ESE) from Butuan City
Distance 4: 423 km (SE) from Surigao City
Distance 5: 574 km (SSE) from Surigao City
Distance 6: 522 km (SE) from Maasin City
Distance 7: 558 km (SE) from Tacloban City
Distance 8: 546 km (SE) from Borongan City
Distance 9: 795 km (SSE) from Legazpi City
Distance 10: 872 km (SSE) from Metro Naga
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 35 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 55 kph
Present Movement: North @ 15 kph
Towards: Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [300 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 millibars (hPa)
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 9 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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