WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM SONAMU (AURING) UPDATE NUMBER 012
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday 06 Jan 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday 07 Jan 2013
Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) losing strength while moving slowly westward across the South China Sea.
Meanwhile, another weather system, Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) was spotted consolidating over the Philippine Sea. Its center was located about 578 km southeast of Mati City, Davao Oriental (5.1N Lat 131.1E Lon)...with maximum winds of 30 km/hr near the center and was almost stationary. This disturbance has a low chance (<30%) of developing into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours, however, its rainbands will bring moderate to heavy rains with thunderstorms along Southern & Eastern Mindanao particularly Caraga and Davao Regions on Monday or Tuesday.
Residents and visitors along Southern Vietnam, Western Malaysia and Southern Thailand should closely monitor the development of Sonamu (Auring).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6 PM today, the center of Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) was located over the South China Sea...about 483 km southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam or 556 km south of Nha Trang, Vietnam...currently moving slowly westward with a forward speed of 9 km/hr in the general direction of the South China Sea.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers from the center. Sonamu (Auring) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 390 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center and to the west of TS Sonamu is estimated to be heavy (350 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) is expected to move west-southwest slowly during the next 24 to 48 hours...with a drift to the south throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Sonamu (Auring) should remain over the South China Sea through Wednesday evening.
Sonamu (Auring) is forecast to continue weakening...and could be just a Tropical Depression on Tuesday morning. This system may dissipate into an area of low pressure on Wednesday evening.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
MONDAY EVENING: Continues to lose strength while moving west-southwest across the South China Sea...about 428 km south-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam [6PM JAN 07: 7.0N 107.3E @ 65kph].
TUESDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Tropical Depression as it turns southwestward...about 493 km south-southwest of the Ho Chi Minh City [6PM JAN 08: 6.4N 105.6E @ 45kph].
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Dissipated into an area of low pressure...near the coast of Western Malaysia...turns southward...about 413 km northeast of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia [6PM JAN 09: 5.3N 104.7E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the coastal areas of Southern Vietnam and Spratly Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions with light to moderate winds (05-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 350 mm (heavy) along areas near, north and west of the center of TS Sonamu (Auring).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun January 06, 2013
Class/Name: TS Sonamu (Auring)
Location of Center: 7.3º N Lat 109.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 483 km (SE) from Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
Distance 2: 556 km (S) from Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 962 km (ENE) from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: West @ 9 kph
Towards: South China Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [350 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 390 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS SONAMU (AURING)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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