WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SONAMU (AURING) UPDATE NUMBER 019
Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday 09 Jan 2013
Next Update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday 09 Jan 2013
Tropical Depression Sonamu (Auring) continues to lose strength as it accelerates towards Western Borneo. Its rainbands still over the open sea of the South China Sea.
Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) has become disorganized as it tracks across the Celebes Sea. Its weak center was located about 243 km southeast of General Santos City (4.5N Lat 126.7E Lon)...with maximum winds of 30 km/hr near the center...moving westward @ 17 kph. This disturbance has a low chance (<30%) of developing into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours, however, its rainbands together with the active Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) will continue to bring moderate to heavy rains with thunderstorms along Mindanao especially the regions of SOCCSKSARGEN, ARMM and Davao Del Sur today.
Residents and visitors along Borneo including Brunei should closely monitor the development of Sonamu (Auring).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6 AM today, the center of Tropical Depression Sonamu (Auring) was located over the South China Sea...about 459 km west-southwest of Brunei or 843 km southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam...currently moving east-southeastward with a forward speed of 19 km/hr in the general direction of Western Borneo.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 45 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Sonamu (Auring) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 350 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of TD Sonamu is estimated to be heavy (350 mm).
1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Tropical Depression Sonamu (Auring) is expected to continue moving east-southeastward during the next 12 hours...with a gradual turn to the east throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the weakening core of Sonamu (Auring) will be approaching the coast of Western Borneo tonight...and should be just along the coast of Western Borneo on Thursday morning.
Sonamu (Auring) is forecast to continue weakening today...and dissipate into an area of low pressure tonight or on Thursday morning.
The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:
THURSDAY MORNING: Turns eastward as it moves over the coast of Western Borneo...just an area of low pressure...about 253 km west-southwest of Brunei [6AM JAN 10: 4.0N 112.8E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
DECAYING RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the coastal areas of Western Borneo. Tropical Depression Conditions with light to moderate winds (05-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 350 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of TD Sonamu (Auring).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed January 09, 2013
Class/Name: TD Sonamu (Auring)
Location of Center: 4.3º N Lat 110.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 459 km (WSW) from Brunei
Distance 2: 843 km (SE) away from Ho Chi Minh City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph
Present Movement: ESE @ 19 kph
Towards: Western Borneo
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [350 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 350 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD SONAMU (AURING)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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