WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM SONAMU (AURING) UPDATE NUMBER 015
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday 07 Jan 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday 08 Jan 2013
Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) weakens as it drifts southwesterly across the South China Sea...likely to dissipate into an area of low pressure on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) continues to lose organization while over the southern part of the Philippine Sea. Its weak center was located about 369 km southeast of Mati City, Davao Oriental (5.0N Lat 129.0E Lon)...with maximum winds of 25 km/hr near the center and was moving southwest slowly. This disturbance has a low chance (<30%) of developing into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours, however, its rainbands together with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) will continue to bring moderate to heavy rains with thunderstorms along Mindanao especially Caraga and Davao Regions tonight and Tuesday.
Residents and visitors along Southern Vietnam, Western Malaysia and Southern Thailand should closely monitor the development of Sonamu (Auring).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6 PM today, the center of Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) was located over the South China Sea...about 537 km south-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam or 676 km south-southwest of Nha Trang, Vietnam...currently moving southwestward with a slow forward speed of 7 km/hr in the general direction of the South China Sea.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Sonamu (Auring) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 390 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center and to the west of TS Sonamu is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) is expected to continue moving southwest slowly during the next 24 hours...with a gradual drift to the south to south-southeast throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Sonamu (Auring) should remain over the open waters of the South China Sea until Wednesday evening.
Sonamu (Auring) is forecast to weaken into a Tropical Depression on Tuesday...and dissipate into an area of low pressure on Wednesday.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:
TUESDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Tropical Depression while moving southwest slowly across the South China Sea...about 618 km south of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam [6PM JAN 08: 5.3N 107.5E @ 55kph].
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Dissipates into an area of low pressure while over the open waters of the South China Sea...about 647 km east-northeast of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia [6PM JAN 09: 3.7N 107.5E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the coastal areas of Southern Vietnam and Western Malaysia. Tropical Depression Conditions with light to moderate winds (05-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near, north and west of the center of TS Sonamu (Auring).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon January 07, 2013
Class/Name: TS Sonamu (Auring)
Location of Center: 6.2º N Lat 108.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 537 km (SSE) from Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
Distance 2: 676 km (SSW) from Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 798 km (ENE) from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Present Movement: SW @ 07 kph
Towards: South China Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 390 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS SONAMU (AURING)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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