WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday 03 Jan 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday 03 Jan 2013
The strong tropical disturbance (LPA) which crossed Mindanao early this morning has emerged over the Sulu Sea...and developed into a Tropical Depression (TD), locally named AURING. Rainbands bringing occasional to widespread rains across Western Mindanao, Western Visayas and Palawan.
This depression will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring moderate to strong winds with "on-and-off" slight, moderate to heavy rains across Eastern & Southern Luzon including Metro Manila, Mindoro, Bicol Region and Marinduque.
Residents and visitors along Palawan and Spratly Islands should closely monitor the development of Auring.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 12 noon today, the developing center of Tropical Depression Auring was located over the Sulu Sea...about 143 km west of Dipolog City, Zamboanga Del Norte or 379 km southeast of Puerto Princesa, Palawan...currently moving west with an accelerated forward speed of 40 km/hr in the general direction of Southern Palawan.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 45 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. A Meteomedia/WeatherPhilippines Weather Station located in Dipolog City, recorded a 24-hour rainfall accumulation of 50.6 millimeters (heavy). Auring is a small-to-average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near and to north of the center of TD Auring is estimated to be heavy (200 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Tropical Depression Auring is expected to continue moving westward during the next 24 to 48 hours with a turn to the WSW throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Auring is expected to pass over Southern Palawan early Friday morning and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Friday afternoon. On Saturday through Sunday, Auring will moving across the South China Sea, approaching the Gulf of Thailand.
Auring is forecast to slightly intensify within the next 12 to 24 hours...and could become a Tropical Storm on Friday while over the West Philippine Sea. This system should start to weaken and dissipate on Sunday.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
FRIDAY NOON: Strengthens into a Tropical Storm as it moves across the West Philippine Sea, away from Southern Palawan [12PM JAN 04: 8.6N 116.0E @ 65kph].
SATURDAY NOON: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it turns west-southwest across the South China Sea [12PM JAN 05: 8.3N 112.3E @ 65kph].
SUNDAY NOON: Weakens into a TD as it moves west-southwest toward the Gulf of Thailand [12PM JAN 06: 7.1N 108.8E @ 45kph].
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Palawan, Zamboanga Peninsula, Sulu Sea, and Western Visayas. Tropical Disturbance Conditions with light to moderate winds (<35 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the developing rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (heavy) along areas near and north of the center of TD Auring.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Thu January 03, 2013
Class/Name: TD Auring
Location of Center: 8.7º N Lat 122.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 143 km (W) away from Dipolog City
Distance 2: 379 km (SE) from Puerto Princesa
Distance 3: 158 km (SW) away from Dumaguete City
Distance 4: 169 km (SSW) away from Kabankalan City
Distance 5: 200 km (N) away from Zamboanga City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph
Present Movement: West @ 40 kph
Towards: Southern Palawan
CPA [ETA] to Southern Palawan: Fri Morning [5-7AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [200 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 335 km [Small/Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD AURING...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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