Monday, January 07, 2013

TS SONAMU (AURING) Update #014


for Monday, 07 January 2013 [1:01 PM PhT]


Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Monday 07 Jan 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday 07 Jan 2013

Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) remains over the South China Sea as it drifts west-southwest...threatens the coastal areas of Western Malaysia.

Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) slightly disorganized as it slows down. Its center was located over the Philippine Sea...about 350 km east-southeast of Mati City, Davao Oriental (5.8N Lat 129.2E Lon)...with maximum winds of 30 km/hr near the center and was moving westward at 5 kph. This disturbance still has a low chance (<30%) of developing into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours, however, its rainbands together with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) will continue to bring moderate to heavy rains with thunderstorms along Mindanao especially Caraga and Davao Regions today.

Residents and visitors along Southern Vietnam, Western Malaysia and Southern Thailand should closely monitor the development of Sonamu (Auring).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 12 noon today, the center of Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) was located over the South China Sea...about 501 km south-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam or 665 km south-southwest of Nha Trang, Vietnam...currently moving slowly west-southwest with a forward speed of 11 km/hr in the general direction of the South China Sea.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers from the center. Sonamu (Auring) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 390 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center and to the west of TS Sonamu is estimated to be extreme (520 mm).


Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) is expected to continue moving west-southwest slowly during the next 24 hours...with a gradual drift to the southwest to south throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Sonamu (Auring) should remain over the South China Sea until Wednesday noon...and approach the coastal area of Western Malaysia on Thursday noon.

Sonamu (Auring) is forecast to weaken into a Tropical Depression on Tuesday...and dissipate into an area of low pressure on Thursday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY NOON: Weakens into a Tropical Depression while moving west-southwest slowly across the South China Sea...about 551 km northeast of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia [12PM JAN 08: 5.9N 105.8E @ 55kph].
WEDNESDAY NOON: Continues to weaken as it turns southwestward near the coast of Western Malaysia...about 434 km northeast of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia [12PM JAN 09: 5.2N 105.0E @ 45kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Dissipates into an area of low pressure...near the coast of Western Malaysia...about 365 km east-northeast of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia [12PM JAN 10: 4.2N 104.8E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the coastal areas of Southern Vietnam and Western Malaysia. Tropical Depression Conditions with light to moderate winds (05-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 520 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near, north and west of the center of TS Sonamu (Auring).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Mon January 07, 2013
Class/Name: TS Sonamu (Auring)
Location of Center: 6.4º N Lat 107.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 501 km (SSE) from Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
Distance 2: 665 km (SSW) from Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 759 km (ENE) from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: WSW @ 11 kph
Towards: South China Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [520 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 390 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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