WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM SONAMU (AURING) UPDATE NUMBER 008
Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Saturday 05 Jan 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday 05 Jan 2013
Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) still moving west-southwest across the South China Sea...threatens the coastal areas of Western Malaysia and Southern Thailand.
Residents and visitors along Southern Vietnam, Western Malaysia and Southern Thailand should closely monitor the development of Sonamu (Auring).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 12 noon today, the center of Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) was located over the South China Sea...about 471 km southwest of Pagasa Island, Spratlys or 565 km south-southeast of Nha Trang City, Vietnam...currently moving west-southwest with a forward speed of 19 km/hr in the general direction of the South China Sea-Gulf of Thailand Area.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 120 kilometers from the center. Yesterday morning, a WeatherPhilippines/Meteomedia Automated Weather Station (AWS) situated in Barangay Rio Tuba in the municipality of Bataraza, Southern Palawan has recorded wind gusts of 46 km/hr blowing from the southeast at 7:00 AM...and a low atmospheric pressure reading of 996 millibars at 3:10 AM. Meanwhile, the 24 rainfall accumulation recorded on that station was at 144 millimeters, which is considered extreme. Sonamu (Auring) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 390 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center and to the northwest of TS Sonamu is estimated to be extreme (450 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Tropical Storm Sonamu (Auring) is expected to continue moving west-southwest during the next 24 to 48 hours...with a westward turn by 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Sonamu (Auring) is expected to continue moving across the South China Sea through Monday...and should be approaching the Western Malaysian coastline on Tuesday.
Sonamu (Auring) is forecast to briefly strengthen to 85 kph on Sunday...before losing strength to 65 kph on Monday...and weakening into a 55-kph Tropical Depression on Tuesday.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
SUNDAY NOON: Intensifies slightly while moving west-southwest across the South China Sea...about 429 km south-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam [12PM JAN 06: 7.2N 108.1E @ 85kph].
MONDAY NOON: Starts to weaken as it starts turning westward towards Western Malaysia...about 321 km east of the Malaysian-Thailand Border [12PM JAN 07: 6.2N 105.0E @ 65kph].
TUESDAY NOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression as it bears down the coast of Western Malaysia...about 135 km east-southeast of the Malaysian-Thailand Border [12PM JAN 08: 6.0N 103.3E @ 55kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the coastal areas of Southern Vietnam. Tropical Depression Conditions with light to moderate winds (05-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the developing rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 450 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near, north and west of the center of TS Sonamu (Auring).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Sat January 05, 2013
Class/Name: TS Sonamu (Auring)
Location of Center: 7.8º N Lat 111.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 471 km (SW) away from Pagasa Is., Spratlys
Distance 2: 565 km (ESE) from Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 633 km (SE) from Ho Chi Minh City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: WSW @ 19 kph
Towards: South China Sea-Gulf of Thailand Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [450 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 390 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS SONAMU (AURING)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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