WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING UPDATE NUMBER 002
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday 03 Jan 2013
Next Update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Friday 04 Jan 2013
Tropical Depression Auring moving quickly westward...fast approaching Southern Palawan...expected to pass across the towns of Brooke's Point and Bataraza tonight. Rainbands spreading across Palawan and Borneo.
This depression will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring moderate to strong winds with "on-and-off" slight, moderate to heavy rains across Northern Visayas, Eastern & Southern Luzon including Metro Manila, Mindoro, Bicol Region and Marinduque.
Residents and visitors along Palawan and Spratly Islands should closely monitor the development of Auring.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression Auring was located over the Sulu Sea...about 104 km southeast of Narra, Palawan or 154 km east of Brooke's Point, Palawan...currently moving west with an accelerated forward speed of 45 km/hr in the general direction of Southern Palawan.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 45 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. A Meteomedia/WeatherPhilippines Weather Station located in Dipolog City, recorded a 24-hour rainfall accumulation of 50.6 millimeters (heavy). Auring is a small-to-average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near and to north of the center of TD Auring is estimated to be heavy (200 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Tropical Depression Auring is expected to move slightly west-southwestward during the next 24 to 48 hours with a slight turn to the west throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Auring is expected to pass over Southern Palawan late this evening...across the towns of Brooke's Point and Bataraza...and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Friday evening. On Saturday through Sunday, Auring will be moving across the South China Sea, approaching the Gulf of Thailand.
Auring is forecast to slightly intensify within the next 12 to 24 hours...and could become a Tropical Storm on Saturday while over the West Philippine Sea. This system should start to weaken on Sunday as it moves into the Gulf of Thailand.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
FRIDAY EVENING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it intensifies slightly while moving across the West Philippine Sea [6PM JAN 04: 8.3N 114.7E @ 55kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Becomes a Tropical Storm as it moves across the South China Sea, towards the Gulf of Thailand [6PM JAN 05: 8.0N 110.7E @ 75kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens slightly as it approaches the Gulf of Thailand [6PM JAN 06: 8.0N 108.2E @ 65kph].
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Palawan, Sulu Sea and Borneo. Tropical Disturbance Conditions with light to moderate winds (<35 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the developing rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (heavy) along areas near and north of the center of TD Auring.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu January 03, 2013
Class/Name: TD Auring
Location of Center: 8.8º N Lat 119.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 114 km (SSE) from Puerto Princesa
Distance 2: 104 km (SE) from Narra, Palawan
Distance 3: 154 km (E) from Brooke's Point, Palawan
Distance 4: 176 km (ENE) from Bataraza, Palawan
Distance 5: 248 km (ENE) from Balabac, Palawan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph
Present Movement: West @ 45 kph
Towards: Southern Palawan
CPA [ETA] to Southern Palawan: Tonight [10-11PM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [200 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 335 km [Small/Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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