for Friday, 16 July 2010 [6:14 PM HKT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri July 16 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly updates web advisiories (except 12 AM HKT) on TY CONSON (BASYANG).
CONSON (BASYANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 kph
TYPHOON CONSON [BASYANG/03W/
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 016
6:00 PM HKT (10:00 GMT) Fri 16 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #020
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Gulf of Tonkin, Northern Vietnam & Southern China should closely monitor the progress of CONSON (BASYANG).
*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
Current Storm Information + Forecast Outlook: CONSON (BASYANG) is expected to pass near the Resort City of Sanya in the next few hours and cross the Gulf of Tonkin tomorrow [2AM JUL 17: 18.7N 108.5E-120kph.
Time/Date: 6:00 PM HKT Fri Jul 16 2010
Location of Eye: 17.7º N Lat 109.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 55 km (30 nm) SSW of Sanya, Hainan
Distance 2: 180 km (97 nm) SSE of Dongfang, Hainan
Distance 3: 200 km (108 nm) South of Danzhou, Hainan
Distance 4: 250 km (135 nm) NE of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 5: 540 km (290 nm) SE of Hanoi, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 245 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: West @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Hainan-Gulf Of Tonkin Area
Size (in Diameter): 740 km (400 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft (6.0 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Latest WunderTrack (for Public): 2 PM HKT Fri Jul 16
+ Forecast Outlook: CONSON (BASYANG) is expected to pass near the Resort City of Sanya in the next few hours and cross the Gulf of Tonkin tomorrow [2AM JUL 17: 18.7N 108.5E-120kph.
+ Effects & Hazards: CONSON's (BASYANG) circulation continues to affect Hainan and Vietnam including the Gulf Of Tonkin, with its core (eye + eyewall) remaining near the southern coast of Hainan. Its inner (rain) bands spreading across Southern Hainan...while its outer (feeder) bands covering the rest of Hainan Island and Eastern Vietnam. Moderate to strong winds (40-60 kph) w/ occasional to widespread rains can be expected along its outer bands...while along its inner bands - strong winds (60-100 kph) w/ widespread rains is possible. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...
+ Current ITCZ Intensity: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains w/ thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, CENTRAL LUZON, BICOL, QUEZON, AND NORTHERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
External Links for TY CONSON (BASYANG)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0310.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 PM Fri Jul 16
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE (MS) IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW TIGHTLY WRAPPED CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IN SOME OF THE
FEEDER BANDS HAS STARTED TO ERODE IN RECENT HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT AND IS IN
AN AREA OF 20-30 KNOTS OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE BANDING EYE FEATURE FOUND IN THE MS
IMAGERY AND IS IN CONCERT WITH THE RJTD POSITION ESTIMATE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON PERSISTENT 77-KNOT
ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND RJTD THOUGH THE 160532Z PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE
CAME DOWN TO 55 KNOTS (BASED ON THE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE).
TY CONSON WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS AND SKIRT THE COAST OF HAINAN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN THE
VICINITY OF HANOI, VIETNAM AROUND TAU 30. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE AFFECTS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN IN NORTHERN VIETNAM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WHICH LIES SLIGHTLY WEST OF
JTWC CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WHICH HAVE CONTINUED TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM FURTHER WEST...(more)
>> CONSON, meaning: A historical place. Name contributed by: Vietnam.
RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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