Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS CONSON (BASYANG)

for Thursday, 15 July 2010 [6:15 PM HKT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu July 15 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly updates web advisiories (except 12 AM HKT) on TS CONSON (BASYANG), but ending the 6-hrly SMS updates (available only for the Philippines).

CONSON (BASYANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 kph

TROPICAL STORM CONSON [BASYANG/03W/1002]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 013
6:00 PM HKT (10:00 GMT) Thu 15 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #016
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Storm CONSON (BASYANG) has been currently re-intensifying over the South China Sea during the past 2-3 hours. Hainan Island under serious threat.

*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Gulf of Tonkin, Northern Vietnam & Southern China should closely monitor the progress of CONSON (BASYANG).

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 PM HKT Thu Jul 15 2010
Location of Center: 16.6º N Lat 113.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 420 km (227 nm) SE of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 2: 450 km (243 nm) ESE of Sanya, Hainan
Distance 3: 640 km (345 nm) SSW of Hong Kong
Distance 4: 625 km (337 nm) SSW of Macau
Distance 5: 740 km (400 nm) WNW of Dagupan City, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 230 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Present Movement: West @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Hainan-Gulf Of Tonkin Area
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (4.5 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
Latest WunderTrack (for Public): 2 PM HKT Thu Jul 15

+ Forecast Outlook: CONSON (BASYANG) is expected to resume tracking WNW to NW-ward across the South China Sea and into the Gulf of Tonkin for the next 2 days...will make landfall along the southern coast of Hainan Island (China) tomorrow afternoon at 2PM and cross the island between 2PM to 1AM Saturday [2PM JUL 16: 18.2N 109.9E - 85kph...2AM JUL 17: 19.5N 108.6E - 75kph]. The 2 to 3-Day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Gulf of Tonkin beginning Saturday morning until the afternoon [2PM JUL 17: 20.7N 107.6E - 65kph] -- and will make its final landfall along the coast of Northern Vietnam around sunset on Saturday. It shall dissipate rapidly overland along Northern Vietnam on Sunday [2PM JUL 18: 23.0N 106.0E - 35kph]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: CONSON's (BASYANG) rain bands remains over the South China Sea, not yet affecting any land areas. However, its outer rain bands is expected to reach Hainan through the night. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (heavy) near the center of CONSON. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

+ Current ITCZ Intensity: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered rains w/ thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN MINDANAO, VISAYAS, BICOL REGION, PARTS OF LUZON. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

External Links for TY CONSON (BASYANG)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0310.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 PM Thu Jul 15
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2PM (06 GMT) THU 15 JULY POSITION: 16.4N 113.8E.
*ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY
WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDING WHILE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF 20-30 KNOTS OF NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
150530Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE WHILE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 45 TO 55
KNOTS. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, TS CONSON WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO SUSTAINED VWS. CURRENTLY, A 150000Z UPPER-
AIR SOUNDING OUT OF HAIKOU (20N 110.3E) SHOWS STEADY NORTHEASTERLY
WIN$DS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN STARTING AT 700 MB. ACCORDINGLY, THIS
FORECAST TAKES A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN A MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL AIDES, TOWARD THE WEST SIDE OF HAINAN, AND LIES TO THE WEST OF
THE JTWC CONSENSUS...(more)

>> CONSON, meaning: A historical place. Name contributed by: Vietnam.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY CONSON (BASYANG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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