for Saturday, 17 July 2010 [11:56 AM HKT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri July 16 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly updates web advisiories (except 12 AM HKT) on TS CONSON (BASYANG).
CONSON (BASYANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 kph
TROPICAL STORM CONSON [BASYANG/03W/
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 018
12:00 PM HKT (04:00 GMT) Sat 17 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #023
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Gulf of Tonkin, Northern Vietnam & Southern China should closely monitor the progress of CONSON (BASYANG).
*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
Current Storm Information + Forecast Outlook: CONSON (BASYANG) is expected to make landfall along the coast of Northern Vietnam, just SE of Hanoi around 8PM tonight [8PM JUL 17: 20.1N 106.0E @ 85kph]. It will then pass about 70 km. SW of Hanoi just after midnight as a downgraded depression [8AM JUL 18: 21.1N 104.7E @ 55kph], and will eventually dissipate tomorrow night [8PM JUL 18: 21.8N 103.6E @ 35kph].
Time/Date: 12:00 PM HKT Sat Jul 17 2010
Location of Center: 19.7º N Lat 107.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 220 km (120 nm) SE of Hanoi, Vietnam
Distance 2: 140 km (75 nm) WNW of Dongfang, Hainan
Distance 3: 230 km (125 nm) West of Danzhou, Hainan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Present Movement: NW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Northern Vietnam
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Avg/Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft (5.1 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
Latest WunderTrack (for Public): 8 AM HKT Sat Jul 17
+ Forecast Outlook: CONSON (BASYANG) is expected to make landfall along the coast of Northern Vietnam, just SE of Hanoi around 8PM tonight [8PM JUL 17: 20.1N 106.0E @ 85kph]. It will then pass about 70 km. SW of Hanoi just after midnight as a downgraded depression [8AM JUL 18: 21.1N 104.7E @ 55kph], and will eventually dissipate tomorrow night [8PM JUL 18: 21.8N 103.6E @ 35kph].
+ Effects & Hazards: CONSON's (BASYANG) circulation continues to affect Hainan and Vietnam including the Gulf Of Tonkin, with its center approaching the coast of Northern Vietnam. Its inner (rain) bands is now spreading across the coastal areas of Northern Vietnam...while its outer (feeder) bands remains over the rest of Hainan Island, Eastern & Northern Vietnam and parts of Western Guangdong (China). Strong winds (60-90 kph) w/ moderate to heavy rains can be expected along its inner bands...while moderate to strong winds (30-50 kph) w/ occasional rains is likely along the outer bands. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...
+ Current ITCZ Intensity: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains w/ thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, CENTRAL LUZON, BICOL, QUEZON, AND MINDORO. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch: [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA/1010 MB) has weakened while off the Philippine Sea, east of Aurora...currently located near lat 15.3N lon 122.9E...or about 150 km ESE of Baler...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 25 kph near the center...moving SW slowly. This system has a 30% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone w/in the next 24 to 48 hours..
External Links for TY CONSON (BASYANG)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0310.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 AM Sat Jul 17
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CONSON) HAS BRUSHED THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HAINAN, DRIFTED INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN, AND WEAKENED FROM TYPHOON
INTENSITY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO
ERODE AS CONVECTION, SHEARED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED WITH WARMING TOPS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS, SUPPORTED BY UPPER-AIR DATA FROM HANOI,
INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED INTO AN AREA OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS RESULTING IN STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(30-40 KNOTS). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 16233OZ HIGH
RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A DIMPLE OVER THE LLCC.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES AND RJTD RANGING FROM 40 TO 6O KNOTS...(more)
>> CONSON, meaning: A historical place. Name contributed by: Vietnam.
RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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