Thursday, July 22, 2010

Typhoon CHANTHU (CALOY) - Update #13

 


for Thursday, 22 July 2010 [12:15 PM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu July 22 2010):

CHANTHU TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER WUCHUAN CITY, ANY MOMENT FROM NOW...(click here to view live observations from Wuchuan AWS). Meanwhile, the city of Dianbai is expected to feel the Eastern Eyewall, (click here to view live observations). Thanks to James Reynolds of www.typhoonfury.com for the chinese radar and cities' weather observation links. Currently issuing 6-hrly updates web advisiories (except 12 AM HKT) on TY CHANTHU (CALOY).


CHANTHU (CALOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 kph

TYPHOON CHANTHU [CALOY/04W/1003]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 013

12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Thu 22 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #016
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
  • Typhoon CHANTHU (CALOY) now on its final approach to Western Guangdong...about to make landfall just to the east of Zhanjiang City, or over the City of Wuchuan (click here to view live observations) any moment from now. Battering rain with howling winds now lashing Zhanjiang District as the western eyewall moves over the area.

    *Residents and visitors along Western Guangdong particulary Zhanjiang District should closely monitor the progress of CHANTHU.

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Thu Jul 22 2010
    Location of Eye: 21.2º N Lat 111.0º E Lon
    Distance 1: 55 km (30 nm) East of Zhanjiang, China
    Distance 2: 140 km (75 nm) NNE of Haikou, Hainan
    Distance 3: 290 km (155 nm) WSW of Macau
    Distance 4: 350 km (190 nm) WSW of Hong Kong
    MaxWinds (1-min avg): 130 kph (70 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 160 kph (85 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 230 mm [Heavy]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
    Present Movement: NNW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
    Towards: Zhanjiang City Area
    Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
    Latest WunderTrack (for Public): 8 AM PhT Thu Jul 22

    + Forecast Outlook: CHANTHU is expected make landfall just east of the City of Zhanjiang - or over Wuchuan City any moment from now, and will move inland across Western Guangdong this afternoon through the evening [8PM JUL 22: 21.9N 110.2E @ 95kph]. The 36-hour Short-Range Forecast shows CHANTHU dissipating over mainland China beginning tomorrow [8AM JUL 23: 22.7N 109.0E @ 55kph...8PM JUL 23: 23.3N 108.0E @ 35kph]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: CHANTHU's core (eye + eyewall) expected to pass over the city of Wuchuan in awhile. Western Eyewall now buffeting Dianbai, parts of Zhanjiang, and coastal areas of Western Guangdong. Typhoon conditions (>120 kph) with heavy rains expected for the next couple of hours. Its inner (rain) bands affecting the Northern part of Hainan Island and the coastal areas of Guangdong - where moderate to strong winds (55-95 kph) w/ light to moderate rains can be expected. The outer (feeder) bands of this system continues to spread across the whole of Hainan and other portions of Guangdong Province - light to moderate winds (25-40 kph) w/ passing light occasional rains can be expected. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (heavy) near the center of CHANTHU. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Hainan, and Western Guangdong today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

    + Current ITCZ Intensity: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains w/ strong thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: REST OF THE PHILIPPINES. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]


    External Links for TY CHANTHU (CALOY)

    View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0410.gif
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 hrs Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
      


  • JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

  • REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8AM (00 GMT) THU 22 JULY POSITION: 20.7N 111.4E.
    *TYPHOON (TY) 04W (CHANTHU), INTENSIFIED FROM A TROPICAL STORM
    AND DEVELOPED AN EYE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
    SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
    LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SAME ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS THE SYSTEM
    GETTING FRAYED ON THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS AS IT BEGINS
    TO INTERACT WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY OF CHINA. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
    BASED ON MULTIPLE MICROWAVE IMAGES, INCLUDING A 212310Z AMSU-B PASS,
    WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
    ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 FROM KNEW, PGTW, AND RJTD. UPPER
    LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
    EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
    NORTHWEST PACIFIC IN AN AREA OF WEAKENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AS
    SUPPORTED BY UPPER-AIR DATA FROM NANNING AND HAIKOU...
    (
    more)

    >> CHANTHU, meaning: A kind of flowerName contributed by: Cambodia.
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :

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    RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: NEW!


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY CHANTHU (CALOY)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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