for Thursday, 22 July 2010 [5:47 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu July 22 2010):
CHANTHU HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR WUCHUAN, CHINA APPROX 1-2PM THIS AFTERNOON...
CHANTHU (CALOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 kph
TYPHOON CHANTHU [CALOY/04W/1003]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 014
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thu 22 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #017
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
*Residents and visitors along Western Guangdong particulary Zhanjiang District & Guangxi should closely monitor the progress of CHANTHU.
*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
Current Storm Information + Forecast Outlook: CHANTHU is expected to weaken into a Tropical Storm while moving inland across Western Guangdong and into Guangxi Province tonight until tomorrow [2AM JUL 23: 22.4N 108.8E @ 95kph]. The 36-hour Short-Range Forecast shows CHANTHU dissipating over mainland China beginning tomorrow afternoon [2PM JUL 23: 23.1N 107.5E @ 55kph...2AM JUL 24: 23.8N 106.1E @ 35kph]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu Jul 22 2010
Location of Center: 21.6º N Lat 110.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 60 km (32 nm) WNW of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 2: 170 km (92 nm) NNW of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 3: 375 km (203 nm) WSW of Macau
Distance 4: 440 km (238 nm) WSW of Hong Kong
Distance 5: 440 km (238 nm) ENE of Hanoi, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 230 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: WNW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Guangxi Province (China)
Size (in Diameter): 405 km (220 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Latest WunderTrack (for Public): 2 PM PhT Thu Jul 22
+ Forecast Outlook: CHANTHU is expected to weaken into a Tropical Storm while moving inland across Western Guangdong and into Guangxi Province tonight until tomorrow [2AM JUL 23: 22.4N 108.8E @ 95kph]. The 36-hour Short-Range Forecast shows CHANTHU dissipating over mainland China beginning tomorrow afternoon [2PM JUL 23: 23.1N 107.5E @ 55kph...2AM JUL 24: 23.8N 106.1E @ 35kph]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.
+ Effects & Hazards: CHANTHU's eyewall has started to weaken as it moves across Western Guangdong, away from Zhanjiang City. Southern Eyewall buffeting Zhanjiang, and coastal areas of Western Guangdong. Typhoon conditions (100-120 kph) with heavy rainfall can be expected for the next couple of hours. Its inner (rain) bands now affecting the inland portions of Western Guangdong - where moderate to strong winds (55-95 kph) w/ moderate rains can be expected. The outer (feeder) bands of this system currently spreading across the whole of Hainan, rest of Guangdong and Guangxi Provinces - light to moderate winds (25-50 kph) w/ passing light occasional rains can be expected. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...
+ Current ITCZ Intensity: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains w/ strong thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: REST OF THE PHILIPPINES. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
External Links for TY CHANTHU (CALOY)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0410.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TYPHOON (TY) 04W (CHANTHU). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 10 NM NORTH OF
ZHANJIANG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
220600Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATE THAT TY 04W MADE LANDFALL AT
APPROXIMATELY 22/06Z WITH A 15 NM ROUND EYE EVIDENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER RANGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 77 (KNES) TO 90 KNOTS (RJTD). TY 04W IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING WEST INTO EASTERN CHINA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF TC-LAPS WHICH DEPICTS AN UNLIKELY RE-CURVE TRACK.
THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED LEFT OF THE JTWC MODEL CONSENSUS. TY 04W
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER TAU 12 AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
GULF OF TONKIN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36 JUST NORTH
>> CHANTHU, meaning: A kind of flower. Name contributed by: Cambodia.
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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