Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS CONSON (BASYANG)

for Wednesday, 14 July 2010 [6:49 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed July 14 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly updates (except 12 AM PhT) on TS CONSON (BASYANG).

CONSON (BASYANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 kph

TROPICAL STORM CONSON [BASYANG/03W/1002]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 010
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wed 14 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #012
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Storm CONSON (BASYANG) weakens anew...now heading on a NW track across the South China Sea...will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow.

*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island & Southern China should closely monitor the progress of CONSON (BASYANG).

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed Jul 14 2010
Location of Center: 16.1º N Lat 117.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 290 km (157 nm) West of Dagupan City
Distance 2: 295 km (160 nm) WSW of Sn.Fernando, La Union
Distance 3: 320 km (173 nm) WSW of Baguio City
Distance 4: 410 km (220 nm) NW of Metro Manila
Distance 5: 765 km (413 nm) SSE of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (85 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Present Movement: NW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Towards: Southern China
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
T2K TrackMap #012 (for Public): 6 PM PhT Wed Jul 14

+ Forecast Outlook: CONSON (BASYANG) is expected to continue tracking WNW to NW-ward across the South China Sea for the next 3 to 4 days...will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow morning [2AM JUL 15: 16.3N 116.2E - 85kph]. The 4-Day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system making its final landfall by early Saturday morning along Western Guangdong (Southern China) or near Zhanjiang, China [2PM JUL 17: 22.3N 109.7E - 55kph]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: CONSON's (BASYANG) outer rainbands will still continue to affect Northern Palawan, Calamian Group, Lubang Island, Bataan, Metro Manila, Batangas, Zambales & Mindoro - winds not exceeding 40 kph w/ light to moderate rainfall can be expected along these areas. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) near the center of CONSON. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Southern Tagalog Provinces, Western Luzon, and Manila Bay. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Current ITCZ Intensity: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with moderate to heavy rains w/ thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: CAGAYAN, ISABELA, AURORA, IFUGAO, BICOL REGION, CENTRAL & EASTERN VISAYAS & PARTS OF MINDANAO. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: PANGASINAN, BATAAN, AND ZAMBALES.

The above areas will continue to have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

External Links for TY CONSON (BASYANG)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0310.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 PM Wed Jul 14
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2PM (06 GMT) WED 14 JULY POSITION: 15.4N 118.4E.
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 25 NM SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
THE LLCC REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CHINA. UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE TRACK WINDS AND
UPPER AIR DATA FROM XISHA DAO, LAOAG AND HAIKOU INDICATE 40-60 KNOT
NORTHEASTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW COVERING THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS FROM KNES, PGTW AND RJTD. TS 03W IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER CHINA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL NEAR ZHANJIANG, CHINA
NEAR 16/18Z. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, THEREFORE,
THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. TS 03W IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FORECAST TO PERSIST BY THE MAJORITY OF
THE AVAILABLE MODEL FIELDS AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BETWEEN
TAU 72 AND 96...(more)

>> CONSON, meaning: A historical place. Name contributed by: Vietnam.
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY CONSON (BASYANG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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