Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS CONSON (BASYANG)

for Thursday, 15 July 2010 [11:55 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu July 15 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly updates web advisiories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS CONSON (BASYANG), but ending the 6-hrly SMS updates (available only for the Philippines).

CONSON (BASYANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 kph

TROPICAL STORM CONSON [BASYANG/03W/1002]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 012
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Thu 15 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #015
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Storm CONSON (BASYANG) barrels across the South China Sea as it moves towards Hainan Island and the Gulf of Tonkin.

*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Gulf of Tonkin, Northern Vietnam & Southern China should closely monitor the progress of CONSON (BASYANG).

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Thu Jul 15 2010
Location of Center: 16.4º N Lat 114.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 500 km (270 nm) SE of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 2: 540 km (290 nm) ESE of Sanya, Hainan
Distance 3: 645 km (348 nm) South of Hong Kong
Distance 4: 650 km (350 nm) South of Macau
Distance 5: 655 km (353 nm) WNW of Dagupan City, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (85 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Present Movement: West @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Hainan-Gulf Of Tonkin Area
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (4.5 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
Latest WunderTrack (for Public): 8 AM HKT Thu Jul 15

+ Forecast Outlook: CONSON (BASYANG) is expected to resume tracking WNW to NW-ward across the South China Sea and into the Gulf of Tonkin for the next 3 days...will now make landfall over Hainan Island (China) tomorrow noontime between 11AM-12PM [8AM JUL 16: 18.2N 110.9E - 95kph]. The 2 to 3-Day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Gulf of Tonkin late tomorrow night after crossing Hainan [8PM JUL 16: 19.4N 109.3E - 75kph] -- and will make it final landfall along the coast of Northern Vietnam before noon on Saturday [8AM JUL 17: 20.7N 107.9E - 75kph]. It shall dissipate rapidly overland (Northern Vietnam) on Sunday [8AM JUL 18: 22.7N 106.0E - 35kph]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: CONSON's (BASYANG) rain bands remains over the South China Sea, not yet affecting any land areas. However, its outer rain bands is expected to reach Eastern Vietnam later today, and over Hainan tonight. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 180 mm (moderate-heavy) near the center of CONSON. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Southern Tagalog Provinces, Western Luzon, and Manila Bay. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Current ITCZ Intensity: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered rains w/ thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN MINDANAO, VISAYAS, BICOL REGION, PARTS OF LUZON. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

External Links for TY CONSON (BASYANG)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0310.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 AM Thu Jul 15
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8AM (00 GMT) THU 15 JULY POSITION: 16.3N 115.1E.
*DESPITE HIGH (>30 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), TS 03W HAS MAINTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
PARTIAL 142210Z 85 GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE PASS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY VWS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CHINA. THERE IS DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION BASED ON THE POORER RESOLUTION AMSU IMAGE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD...(more)

>> CONSON, meaning: A historical place. Name contributed by: Vietnam.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY CONSON (BASYANG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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