Saturday, July 17, 2010

LPA 98W - Update #01


for Saturday, 17 July 2010 [6:16 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat July 17 2010):

Now initiating the 6-hrly updates web advisiories (except 12 AM HKT) on Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA) developing near the coast of Aurora.


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 25 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr


6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sat 17 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
  • A small Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA) has been spotted developing near the coast of Aurora...drifting very slowly Northwesterly. This system has a 60% chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours.

    *Residents and visitors along Central & Northern Luzon particularly Aurora & Isabela should closely monitor the progress of 98W (LPA).

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sat Jul 17 2010
    Location of Center: 15.7º N Lat 122.6º E Lon
    Distance 1: 75 km (40 nm) SE of Casiguran, Aurora
    Distance 2: 110 km (60 nm) East of Baler, Aurora
    Distance 3: 165 km (90 nm) SE of Cauayan, Isabela
    Distance 4: 225 km (122 nm) ESE of Baguio City
    Distance 5: 250 km (135 nm) ESE of Dagupan City
    Distance 6: 140 km (75 nm) NE of Infanta, Quezon
    Distance 7: 200 km (108 nm) NE of Metro Manila
    Distance 8: 240 km (130 nm) NNW of Metro Naga/CWC
    MaxWinds (1-min avg): 35 kph (20 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 55 kph (35 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): N/A
    Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Disturbance
    Present Movement: NW @ 04 kph (02 kts)
    Towards: Aurora-Isabela Area
    Size (in Diameter): 300 km (160 nm) / Small
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 7 ft (2.1 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    T2K Initial TrackMap #001 (for Public): 6 PM PhT Sat Jul 17

    + Forecast Outlook: This section will commence once this disturbance (LPA) has been upgraded into a Tropical Depression.

    + Effects & Hazards: 98W's (LPA) loose and scattered circulation has been spreading across much of Bicol Region and Luzon particularly the Northern and Central Luzon including Metro Manila. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

    External Links for 98W (LPA)

    View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis


  • REMARKS (for Meteorologists)N/A..(more)




    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 

      * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:


    For the complete details on LPA 98W...go visit our website @:


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