Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS CONSON (BASYANG) now over the South China Sea [Update #09]

for Wednesday, 14 July 2010 [12:50 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed July 14 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly updates (except 12 AM PhT) on TS CONSON (BASYANG).

CONSON (BASYANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 kph

TROPICAL STORM CONSON [BASYANG/03W/1002]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 009
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Wed 14 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #011
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Storm CONSON (BASYANG) finally changing its course while over the South China Sea...now on a WNW track, farther away from Luzon.

*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island & Southern China should closely monitor the progress of CONSON (BASYANG).

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Wed Jul 14 2010
Location of Center: 14.9º N Lat 118.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 145 km (78 nm) WSW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 170 km (92 nm) West of Subic Bay/Olongapo
Distance 3: 260 km (140 nm) WNW of Metro Manila
Distance 4: 505 km (272 nm) WNW of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 4: 950 km (513 nm) SSE of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (85 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Present Movement: WNW @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Towards: Southern China
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
T2K TrackMap #011 (for Public): 12 PM PhT Wed Jul 14

+ Forecast Outlook: CONSON (BASYANG) is expected to continue tracking WNW to NW-ward across the South China Sea for the next 3 days...will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow morning [8AM JUL 15: 16.6N 115.6E @ 95kph]. The 4-Day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system making its final landfall on Saturday morning along Western Guangdong (Southern China) or about 370 km. west of Hong Kong [8AM JUL 17: 21.3N 110.8E @ 65kph]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: CONSON's (BASYANG) outer rainbands will still continue to affect Northern Palawan, Calamian Group, Lubang Island & Mindoro - winds not exceeding 50 kph w/ light to moderate rainfall can be expected along these areas. Meanwhile, Metro Manila's skies will clear up later today as the storm moves farther away. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) near the center of CONSON. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Southern Tagalog Provinces, Western Luzon, and Manila Bay. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: BATANGAS, CAVITE, LUBANG ISLAND, BATAAN, ZAMBALES, NORTHERN MINDORO, AND METRO MANILA.

The above areas will continue to have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

External Links for TY CONSON (BASYANG)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0310.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 12 PM Wed Jul 14
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8AM (00 GMT) WED 14 JULY POSITION: 14.6N 119.7E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CONSON) HAS CROSSED LUZON INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA AND INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY AND IS NOW JUST TO THE WEST OF
SUBIC BAY, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR (WV) IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN RESPONSE TO MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON MULTIPLE MICROWAVE IMAGES INCLUDING A 132244Z SSMI-S PASS
SHOWING AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
UNIFIED DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS).
TS 03W CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS WELL SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AS
EVIDENCED ON THE WV ANIMATION AND ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY...(more)

>> CONSON, meaning: A historical place. Name contributed by: Vietnam.
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY CONSON (BASYANG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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