Monday, July 12, 2010

TS 03W (BASYANG) - Update #01

 


for Monday, 12 July 2010 [6:36 AM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon July 12 2010):

Now issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12 AM PhT) on TS 03W (BASYANG).


03W (BASYANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 03W [BASYANG]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002

6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Mon 12 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #002
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
  • 03W intensified rapidly into a Tropical Storm (BASYANG)...continues to threaten Luzon.

    *Residents and visitors along Bicol Region and Luzon should closely monitor the progress of 03W.

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon Jul 12 2010
    Location of Center: 14.2º N Lat 130.9º E Lon
    Distance 1: 725 km (390 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
    Distance 2: 765 km (413 nm) ENE of Gota, Caramoan
    Distance 3: 785 km (425 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
    Distance 4: 835 km (450 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
    Distance 5: 970 km (525 nm) ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
    Distance 6: 1,055 km (570 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
    MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 110 mm [Moderate]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
    Present Movement: WNW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
    Towards: Northern Luzon
    Size (in Diameter): 300 km (160 nm) / Small
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: <4 feet [<1.2 m]
    T2K TrackMap #002 (for Public): 6 AM PhT Mon Jul 12

    + Forecast Outlook: 03W (BASYANG) is expected to maintain its WNW track throughout its forecast and intensify as it moves towards Northern Luzon [2AM JUL 13: 15.2N 127.5E]. It will reach its peak strength of 95 kph by tomorrow & make landfall somewhere in Southern Isabela [2 AM JUL 14: 16.7N 123.0E] by Wednesday morning Jul 14. 03W is expected to lose strength upon traversing the mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon Wednesday morning until the evening. The 3 to 5-Day Long-Range Forecast shows the system exiting Ilocos Provinces by early Thursday [2AM JUL 15: 18.1N 120.4E] and will be in the middle of the South China Sea on Friday as it approaches Southern China on Saturday [2AM JUL 16: 20.0N 118.3E...2AM JUL 17: 21.7N 117.2E].

    + Effects & Hazards: 03W's (BASYANG) compact circulation continues to improve while it remains over the Philippine Sea...no effects & hazards are in place at this time. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 75 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 110 mm (moderate) near the center of 03W. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    Now In Effect: CAGAYAN, ISABELA AND AURORA.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph can be expected beginning tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

    External Links for TS 03W (BASYANG)

    View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0310.gif
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop



  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, & 48 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 12 JULY: 14.6N 129.7E / 75-95 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 20 KPH 
    2 AM (18 GMT) 13 JULY: 15.2N 127.5E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 20 KPH 
    2 AM (18 GMT) 14 JULY: 16.7N 123.0E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 13 KPH 

  • REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) MON 12 JULY POSITION: 13.9N 131.8E.

    *THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM BASED ON A 111201Z ASCAT PASS
    DEPICTING 35 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND A DVORAK
    ESTIMATE FROM PGTW 0F 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
    1:30 AM 36 GHZ AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE THAT TS 03W HAS CONTINUED TO
    CONSOLIDATE WITH INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AND TIGHTLY CURVED
    BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
    CENTER (LLCC)....
    (
    more)
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
    > 4 AM (20 GMT) MON 12 JULY: 14.4N 131.0E / WNW @ 22 kph / 55 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
    :

    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION***WARNING!!! THE ANIMATION IS NOT YET ALIGN WITH THE LAND FEATURES.***


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS 03W (BASYANG)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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