for Friday, 16 July 2010 [7:13 AM HKT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri July 16 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly updates web advisiories (except 12 AM HKT) on TY CONSON (BASYANG).
CONSON (BASYANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 kph
TYPHOON CONSON [BASYANG/03W/
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 014
6:00 AM HKT (22:00 GMT) Fri 16 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #018
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Gulf of Tonkin, Northern Vietnam & Southern China should closely monitor the progress of CONSON (BASYANG).
*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
Current Storm Information
Time/Date: 6:00 AM HKT Fri Jul 16 2010
Location of Center: 17.0º N Lat 111.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 215 km (115 nm) SE of Sanya, Hainan
Distance 2: 250 km (135 nm) S of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 3: 365 km (197 nm) ENE of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 4: 670 km (362 nm) SW of Hong Kong
Distance 5: 705 km (380 nm) SE of Hanoi, Vietnam
Distance 6: 995 km (538 nm) WNW of Dagupan City, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 130 kph (70 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 160 kph (85 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 240 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: West @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Gulf Of Tonkin-Northern Vietnam
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft (6.0 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Latest WunderTrack (for Public): 2 AM HKT Fri Jul 16
+ Forecast Outlook: CONSON (BASYANG) is now expected to pass over the Resort City of Sanya @ 5PM HKT today and make landfall along the southwestern part of Hainan Island (China) tonight [2PM JUL 16: 17.9N 110.1E-140kph.
+ Effects & Hazards: CONSON's (BASYANG) circulation is now starting to affect Hainan and Vietnam. Its inner (rain) bands now just off the southern coast of Hainan...while its outer (feeder) bands is spreading across Hainan Island and Eastern Vietnam. Moderate to strong winds (40-60 kph) w/ occasional to widespread rains can be expected along its outer bands...while along its inner bands - strong winds (60-100 kph) w/ widespread rains is possible.6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...
+ Current ITCZ Intensity: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains w/ thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: BICOL, QUEZON, AND NORTHERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
External Links for TY CONSON (BASYANG)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0310.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 AM Fri Jul 16
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TYPHOON BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 65 TO 77 KNOTS FROM KNES, PGTW, AND RJTD, AS WELL AS A PARTIAL
151615Z 37 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE PASS INDICATING A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION BASED
ON A 151806Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE DEPICTING A BANDING EYE FEATURE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PASSING
OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL OVER LUZON HAVE CAUSED A WEAKENING IN THE NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH. TY 03W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK, SKIRTING SOUTHERN HAINAN
BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24, THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, TY 03W IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75
KNOTS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 TO 25
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. NEAR TAU 24 THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH THE
MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN HAINAN AND INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48 TY 03W
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR HANOI, VIETNAM. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TCLAPS AND GFDN
WHICH ERRONEOUSLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM INTO THE STEERING RIDGE.
THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST FAVORS A TRACK SLIGHTLY WEST OF MODEL
CONSENSUS...(more)
>> CONSON, meaning: A historical place. Name contributed by: Vietnam.
RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
________________________
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
>
> http://www.maybagyo
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