Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG) to strike Cagayan-Northern Isabela this noon...[Update #015]

for Saturday, 03 October 2009 [6:08 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu October 01 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG).

PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr

TYPHOON PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 015
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sat 03 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #021
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG) has accelerated NW and is now approaching the coast of Northern Isabela...landfall over Cagayan expected this afternoon.

*Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to continue moving NW for the next 24 hours, making landfall over Northern Cagayan approx 3 PM this afternoon and shall over Aparri around midnight tonight. The core shall exit via the northern coast of Ilcos Norte early tomorrow morning and shall remain quasi-stationary on that area for the next 24 hours (Oct 4-5).The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system starting to recurve NE slowly and pass over Batanes Group early Wednesday morning Oct 7 and accelerate towards Ryukyu Islands-Okinawa Area, following the larger Typhoon MELOR. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.

+ Effects: PARMA's main circulation has shrunked a little and became slightly weaker...The core is now approaching the coast of Northern Isabela and Cagayan...its inner (rain) bands now along the coast of Isabela, Aurora and Cagayan. Typhoon conditions can expected today as the typhoon starts making landfall. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Typhoon MELOR (20W) moving very slowly and threatens the Northern Marianas. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.

Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sat October 03 2009
Location of Eye: 17.3º N Lat 123.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 165 km (90 nm) ESE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 2: 210 km (113 nm) SE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 170 km (92 nm) NNE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 295 km (160 nm) ESE of Laoag City
Distance 5: 365 km (197 nm) SSE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 6: 410 km (222 nm) North of Naga City
Distance 7: 375 km (202 nm) NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph (100 kts) near the eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph (125 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 9-12 feet [2.7-3.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Cagayan
Size (in Diameter): 610 km (330 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 32 ft (9.7 m)
T2K TrackMap #06 (for Public): 6 AM PST Sat Oct 03
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18 GMT Fri Oct 02
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sat Oct 03
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image new!
NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
Now In Effect: CAGAYAN, BABUYAN & CALAYAN IS. & NORTHERN ISABELA.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
Now In Effect: BATANES, APAYAO, KALINGA, ILOCOS NORTE, ABRA, MT. PROV., IFUGAO, QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, REST OF ISABELA, NORTHERN AURORA, POLILLO ISLAND, AND CATANDUANES.

The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03).

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
Now In Effect: ILOCOS SUR, BENGUET, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, N.ECIJA, BULACAN, RIZAL, QUEZON, CAMARINES PROVINCES, AND ALBAY.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1, 2 & 3 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 17.8N 122.3E / 175-215 KPH (TY-Cat 4) / NW @ 11 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 04 OCTOBER: 18.5N 121.4E / 150-185 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / NW @ 05 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 05 OCTOBER: 19.2N 120.5E / 150-185 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / N @ 04 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 06 OCTOBER: 19.9N 120.5E / 160-195 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / NE @ 05 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 03 OCTOBER POSITION: 16.6N 123.8E.
*INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO BECOME AFFECTED BY
INTERACTION WITH LAND AS DEEP CONVECTION WANES IN THE BANDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING LUZON,
AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 12 AND MOVE BACK OVER
WATER BY TAU 24. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST ERODES
DURING THE PASSAGE OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, TY 19W WILL MOVE INTO A
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AFTER TAU 24, AND WILL MOVE ERRATICALLY IN
THE STRAIT OF LUZON THROUGH TAU 48. THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE
IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME, AND A NUMBER OF
INFLUENCES COULD BECOME THE PREDOMINATE STEERING FLOW. THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE STR TO THE EAST TO BUILD FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF TY 20W (MELOR) AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR WILL
PICK UP 19W AND SLOWLY BRING IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 72;
THIS IS FAVORED BY GFS AND GFDN. ANOTHER SCENARIO IS FOR THE STR TO
THE WEST, LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA, TO BUILD TO THE EAST. THIS
WOULD PICK UP 19W AND SLOWLY TRACK IT WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA AFTER TAU 48; THIS SCENARIO IS FAVORED BY JGSM. THE FINAL
POSSIBLE SCENARIO IS FOR TY 20W TO APPROACH CLOSE ENOUGH TO 19W TO
INITIATE A BINARY INTERACTION THAT WOULD CAUSE 19W TO TRACK SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE EVENTUALLY TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THIS SCENARIO IS FAVORED BY ECMWF AND
NOGAPS. DUE TO THE FORECAST DISTANCE BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS BEING TOO
GREAT FOR INTERACTION, THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO
THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
EAST AFTER TAU 72...(more)

>> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms). Name contributed by: Macau, China.
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY PARMA (PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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