for Wednesday, 14 October 2009 [3:57 PM PST]
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue October 13 2009):
Now issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on the newly-formed TD 22W (UNNAMED)
22W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
2:00 PM PST (06:00 GMT) Wed 14 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #001
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
The strong tropical disturbance (LPA/94W) north of Chuuk Island has strengthened into Tropical Depression 22W (UNNAMED)...moving quickly westward...threatens Guam and Southern Marianas.
*Residents and visitors along the Mariana Island Chain should closely monitor the progress of 22W.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: 22W is expected to continue moving quickly Westward, within the easterly flow of the strong high pressure north of it. It shall become a Tropical Storm tomorrow morning before passing to the south of Guam. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows 22W heading slightly WNW across the Western Pacific Ocean...and shall become a Category 1 Typhoon as it nears the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday Oct 19. *The ECMWF 10-Day Extended Long-Range Forecast: 22W is expected to slow down as it approaches the Island of Luzon on Tuesday Oct 20, intensifying into a Category 3 or 4 Typhoon...It shall make landfall over Northern Luzon or over Isabela Wednesday evening, Oct 21 and exit thru Benguet and La Union early Thursday morning, Oct 22. Please be reminded that the ECMWF model run changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
+ Effects: 22W's broad circulation continues to consolidate while moving Westward. Its outer bands is expected to move into Southern Marianas beginning tonight - bringing scattered rains w/ squalls and thunderstorms. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of 22W particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
(1) Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA) has accelerated WNW across Leyte and is now over the Visayan Sea, just south of Masbate...its rainbands ahead of its center, continues to spread across the whole of the Visayas, Bicol Region and Southern Luzon including Metro Manila...currently located near lat 11.5N lon 124.0E...or about 100 km SE of Masbate City...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...moving WNW @ 28 kph towards Romblon & Mindoro area. This system may likely become a Tropical Cyclone once it reaches the South China Sea tomorrow.
Kindly click the T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 2:00 PM PST Wed October 14 2009
Location of Center: 9.8º N Lat 150.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 775 km (420 nm) SE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 1,405 km (760 nm) East of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 1,740 km (940 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2,770 km (1,495 nm) ESE of Visayas, PH
Distance 5: 3,045 km (1,645 nm) ESE of Naga City, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Southern Marianas
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Wed Oct 14
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Wed Oct 14
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:
8 PM (12 GMT) 14 OCTOBER: 10.3N 150.1E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / W @ 28 KPH
<<<Typhoon2000.
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue October 13 2009):
Now issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on the newly-formed TD 22W (UNNAMED)
22W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
2:00 PM PST (06:00 GMT) Wed 14 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #001
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
*Residents and visitors along the Mariana Island Chain should closely monitor the progress of 22W.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: 22W is expected to continue moving quickly Westward, within the easterly flow of the strong high pressure north of it. It shall become a Tropical Storm tomorrow morning before passing to the south of Guam. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows 22W heading slightly WNW across the Western Pacific Ocean...and shall become a Category 1 Typhoon as it nears the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday Oct 19. *The ECMWF 10-Day Extended Long-Range Forecast: 22W is expected to slow down as it approaches the Island of Luzon on Tuesday Oct 20, intensifying into a Category 3 or 4 Typhoon...It shall make landfall over Northern Luzon or over Isabela Wednesday evening, Oct 21 and exit thru Benguet and La Union early Thursday morning, Oct 22. Please be reminded that the ECMWF model run changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
+ Effects: 22W's broad circulation continues to consolidate while moving Westward. Its outer bands is expected to move into Southern Marianas beginning tonight - bringing scattered rains w/ squalls and thunderstorms. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
(1) Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA) has accelerated WNW across Leyte and is now over the Visayan Sea, just south of Masbate...its rainbands ahead of its center, continues to spread across the whole of the Visayas, Bicol Region and Southern Luzon including Metro Manila...currently located near lat 11.5N lon 124.0E...or about 100 km SE of Masbate City...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...moving WNW @ 28 kph towards Romblon & Mindoro area. This system may likely become a Tropical Cyclone once it reaches the South China Sea tomorrow.
Kindly click the T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 2:00 PM PST Wed October 14 2009
Location of Center: 9.8º N Lat 150.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 775 km (420 nm) SE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 1,405 km (760 nm) East of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 1,740 km (940 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2,770 km (1,495 nm) ESE of Visayas, PH
Distance 5: 3,045 km (1,645 nm) ESE of Naga City, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Southern Marianas
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Wed Oct 14
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Wed Oct 14
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
8 PM (12 GMT) 14 OCTOBER: 10.3N 150.1E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / W @ 28 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 15 OCTOBER: 10.7N 147.1E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / W @ 20 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 16 OCTOBER: 11.7N 143.1E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 13 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 17 OCTOBER: 12.7N 140.5E / 110-140 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 11 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 16 OCTOBER: 11.7N 143.1E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 13 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 17 OCTOBER: 12.7N 140.5E / 110-140 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 11 KPH
REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 14 OCTOBER POSITION: 9.6N 152.9E.
*TD 22W HAS CONSOLIDATED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AS INDICATED IN RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. A 132118Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRONG DEEP CONVECTION
ALIGNED NORTH-SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 131944Z QUIKSCAT
SHOWED 40-50 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS, HOWEVER, THESE WINDS WERE LOCATED
UNDER THE INTENSE CONVECTION AND WERE CONSIDERED SUSPECT. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM TRUK, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SSW OF THE CENTER
INDICATED ONLY 10-KNOT WESTERLIES AND SLP NEAR 1010 MB SUPPORTING
THE TD CLASSIFICATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE LATEST PGTW SATELLITE FIXES AS
WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE..
____________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (GUAM) TRACKING CHART:
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/ ) ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.
NOTE:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 22W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
>
> http://www.maybagyo
Copyright © 2009 Typhoon2000.
__._,_.___
Change settings via the Web (Yahoo! ID required)
Change settings via email: Switch delivery to Daily Digest | Switch format to Traditional
Visit Your Group | Yahoo! Groups Terms of Use | Unsubscribe
.
__,_._,___
No comments:
Post a Comment