Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MIRINAE (SANTI) to pass north of Camarines Provinces tonight.. [Update #015]

for Friday, 30 October 2009 [6:53 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri October 30 2009):

Currently issuing 3-hrly Web & SMS Advisories on TY MIRINAE (SANTI)...while 6-hrly advisories continues for E-Mail.

MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 kph

EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES:

+ Camarines Norte: 9PM until 12MN tonight
+ Northern Quezon: 1AM until 5AM tomorrow
+ Metro Manila: 3AM until 8AM tomorrow.

Note: The EyeWall - is a ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon. It is here where the strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found. EPFT will show what local times on a given area the most damaging winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT changes everytime a new warning synopsis is issued. Important: This is only an estimate analysis, do not use this for life or death decisions.

TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 015
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Fri 30 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC SATFIX & WARNING #018
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon MIRINAE (SANTI) weakened slightly as it starts moving close to the coastal areas of Camarines Provinces...Rains and winds now starting to be felt across Northern Bicol.

*Residents and visitors along the Bicol Region, Eastern, Southern and Central Luzon including Metro Manila should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: The weakening core (eye & eyewall) of MIRINAE is expected track more WSW within the next 12 hours, passing very close to Northern Camarines Sur...about 110 km. North of Naga City or 65 km. North of Siruma around 9 or 10 PM tonight...and passing very close to Camarines Norte - about 55 km. North of Daet around 10 or 11 PM tonight. Around midnight, the core will move across Polillo Islands and make landfall just south of Infanta, Quezon around 2 or 3 AM tomorrow, Saturday...then traverse Northern Quezon-Rizal-Metro Manila-Manila Bay and Bataan between 4 AM until 9 AM. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system moving across the South China Sea on Nov 1 Sunday...and then will make landfall over Vietnam on Monday Nov 02 as a weakened Tropical Storm. It will dissipate over Cambodia on Tuesday, Nov 03. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's convective circulation remains strong as it moves across the coastal areas of Camarines Provinces. The EYE remains cloud-filled w/ inner rainbands now affecting Catanduanes and Camarines Provinces. Stormy conditions not exceeding 100 kph can be expected along these areas. Its outer rainbands has started spreading across Bicol Region, Masbate, Northern Visayas and the rest of Luzon including Metro Manila...Strong winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected beginning tonight until tomorrow...Deteriorating weather conditions can be expected across Metro Manila just after midnight until the morning, as MIRINAE passes by. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & Northern Visayas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Fri October 30 2009
Location of Eye: 14.7º N Lat 123.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 95 km (50 nm) NNE of Siruma, Cam Sur
Distance 2: 100 km (55 nm) North of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 125 km (67 nm) NE of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 4: 130 km (70 nm) NNW of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 145 km (78 nm) NNE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 6: 180 km (98 nm) North of Legazpi City
Distance 7: 235 km (127 nm) East of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 8: 300 km (162 nm) East of Quezon City
Distance 9: 315 km (170 nm) East of Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph (85 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts)
Click to view: Mirinae's Latest Wind Analysis new!
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Polillo-N.Quezon-Metro Manila
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 27 ft (8.2 m)
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Fri Oct 30
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Fri Oct 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
Now In Effect: METRO MANILA, CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, CATANDUANES, QUEZON, POLILLO ISLANDS, MARINDUQUE, LUBANG ISLAND, ORIENTAL MINDORO, BATANGAS, LAGUNA, CAVITE, RIZAL, BATAAN, AND BULACAN.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
Now In Effect: AURORA, QUIRINO, NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC, PAMPANGA, ZAMBALES, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ALBAY, AND BURIAS IS.

The above areas will experience stormy weather tonight and tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
Now In Effect: ISABELA, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, BENGUET, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, SORSOGON, MASBATE, ROMBLON, CALAMIAN GROUP, NORTHERN PANAY, AND NORTHERN SAMAR.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 AM (18 GMT) 31 OCTOBER: 14.6N 121.8E / 160-195 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / W @ 22 KPH - LANDFALL

2 PM (06 GMT) 31 OCTOBER: 14.5 119.3E / 130-160 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 24 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 01 NOVEMBER: 14.1N 113.8E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 24 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 02 NOVEMBER: 13.4N 108.5E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / W @ 17 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) FRI 30 OCTOBER POSITION: 14.9N 124.6E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED JUST SOUTH OF WEST AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 23W HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM DRAGGED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PROVINCES OF
LUZON. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHT BANDING EYE THAT
MADE IT EASY TO LOCATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF PGTW, RJTD AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TYPHOON CONTINUES TO HAVE
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF A MESOSCALE ANTI-
CYCLONE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. TY MIRINAE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IT WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN QUEZON PROVINCE BY TAU 12, DEFLECT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH
ACROSS MANILA, AND EMERGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS A SLIGHTLY
WEAKENED TYPHOON LESS THAN 10 HOURS AFTER LANDFALL. IT WILL CONTINUE
TO STEADILY WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF EASTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND LOW LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INDUCED BY AN EARLY-SEASON COLD SURGE. MIRINAE
WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTH-CENTRAL VIETNAM JUST BEFORE TAU 72 AND
WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 96.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK WITH
WBAR REMAINING AS THE SOLE OUTLIER TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. SOME
OF THE MODEL AIDS, INCLUDING JGSM, UKMET, AND GFS TAKE THE SYSTEM A
LITTLE MORE SOUTH TOWARDS HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM...(more)

>> MIRINAE, meaning: Milky Way. Name contributed by: Korea.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 30 OCTOBER: 14.8N 124.1E / WSW @ 24 kph / 150 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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LATEST 6-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): NEW!!!

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=TWENTYTHRE)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY MIRINAE (SANTI)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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