Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS PARMA (PEPENG)

for Thursday, 08 October 2009 [6:14 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue October 06 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly SMS, web & e-mail advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS PARMA (PEPENG).

PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 029
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Thu 08 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #041
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm PARMA (PEPENG) standstill off the east coast of Cagayan...may begin tracking Westward w/in the next 24 hours and cross Extreme Northern Luzon for the 3rd time. Tropical Storm conditions continuing across the affected area.

*Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to start moving slowly westward within the next 24 hours and cross Cagayan again, but may weaken into a TD due to land influence. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows PARMA that after crossing Extreme Northern Luzon, it shall regain TS strength while over the South China Sea on Sunday, Oct 11. It shall be approaching the east coast of Hainan Island by early Tuesday morning, wil forecast wind velocity of 85 kph.

+ Effects: PARMA's loose and weak circulation still trying to reform while off the east coast of Cagayan-Isabela...will continue to dump excessive amounts of rainfall across most of Northern Luzon, where possible flooding is likely...its outer bands has been expanding southward - bringing windy conditions (of up to 50 kph) w/ occasional light rains across Central & Southern Luzon including Bicol and Metro Manila. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA or along mountains slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Typhoon MELOR (QUEDAN) is now making landfall along SW Honshu just south of Kyoto, Japan. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.

Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Thu October 08 2009
Location of Center: 17.7º N Lat 122.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 65 km (35 nm) East of Tuguegarao City
Distance 2: 75 km (40 nm) NE of Ilagan, Isabela
Distance 3: 100 km (55 nm) SE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 190 km (103 nm) ESE of Laoag City
Distance 5: 170 km (92 nm) North of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 370 km (200 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Projected Area of Impact: Cagayan-Apayao-Ilocos Norte
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Thu Oct 8
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Thu Oct 8
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image
NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: NUEVA VIZCAYA, NORTHERN AURORA, BENGUET, BATANES-BABUYAN-CALAYAN ISLAND GROUP, CAGAYAN, ILOCOS NORTE, APAYAO, ABRA, KALINGA, ILOCOS SUR, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, ISABELA AND IFUGAO.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight and tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 08 OCTOBER: 17.8N 122.2E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 04 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 09 OCTOBER: 17.9N 121.8E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / WNW @ 07 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 10 OCTOBER: 18.3N 119.8E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / W @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 11 OCTOBER: 18.6N 117.5E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / W @ 11 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 08 OCTOBER POSITION: 17.9N 122.4E.
*RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE CELLS FORMING AROUND THE POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND MULTIPLE BANDS FORMING TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVER LAND THAT DO NOT REACH INTO THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS
JUST OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON AND APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING TO
ORGANIZE DUE TO TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS OVER LUZON. TS 19W REMAINS IN A
VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
OVER SOUTHERN CHINA AND AN EASTWARD PULL CAUSED BY BINARY INTERACTION
WITH TY 20W. AS 20W ACCELERATES OUT OF THE REGION, 19W IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE WEST AND SLOWLY ACCELERATE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. OBJECTIVE AID GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MOST AIDS KEEPING THE SYSTEM QUASISTATIONRY
THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD. GFS IS THE
NORTHERNMOST OUTLIER WITH THE TRACK MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN
CHINA, JUST WEST OF HONG KONG. NOGAPS IS THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER,
TRACKING THE SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THIS FORECAST, ECMWF,
JGSM AND UKMO ARE ALL NEAR THE AVERAGE. AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES BACK
OVER THE WATER IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY IN THE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE WARM SEAS AND MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IN THE REGION...(more)

>> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms). Name contributed by: Macau, China.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 08 OCTOBER: 17.9N 122.4E / West Slowly / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS PARMA (PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm