Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG) now off Ilocos' Coast... [Update #018]

for Sunday, 04 October 2009 [5:44 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu October 01 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG).

PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 kph
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr

TYPHOON PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 018
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sun 04 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #025
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG) weakened further after crossing Extreme Northern Luzon last night...now off the NW coast of Ilocos Norte...still producing typhoon conditions across Ilocos Provinces and parts of Apayao and Calayan Island Group.

*Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Southern China & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to slow down as it enters weak steering flow...it shall drift slowly NNW, Northward then NNE (clockwise motion) for the next 2 days. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system slowly moving ESE to Eastward due to Direct Cyclone Interaction (DCI) (aka. Fujiwhara Effect) w/ Typhoon MELOR (20W), currently located 2,410 km. to the ESE. This scenario is still complicated at this time. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There's a possibility that PARMA shall track West to WSW into the South China Sea and no longer interacts w/ MELOR if the current High Pressure ridge over China strengthens and become the dominant steering factor for Typhoon PARMA. However, this scenario remains poor at this time.

+ Effects: PARMA's main circulation has slightly become weaker due to land interaction w/ Luzon...Its core (eye & eyewall) is now off the NW coast of Ilocos Norte...Typhoon conditions of winds not exceeding 120 kph can still be expected along Ilocos Norte...while its inner (rain) bands spreading across Ilocos Sur, Abra, Kalinga, Apayao, Calayan Island Group, and Western Cagayan - where stormy conditions w/ winds not exceeding 85 kph can be expected today. Central Luzon and rest of Northern Luzon will remain under PARMA's outer (feeder) bands), where light to moderate rains w/ winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northwestern Luzon. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Typhoon MELOR (20W) approaching Super Typhoon status...now accelerating away from Northern Marianas. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.

Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sun October 04 2009
Location of Eye: 18.7º N Lat 120.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 65 km (35 nm) NNW of Laoag City
Distance 2: 125 km (67 nm) North of Vigan City
Distance 3: 145 km (78 nm) WSW of Calayan Island
Distance 4: 150 km (80 nm) WNW of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 260 km (140 nm) SW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 6: 435 km (235 nm) South of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 7: 750 km (405 nm) SE of Hong Kong
Distance 8: 465 km (250 nm) NNW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): 815 km (440 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft (8.5 m)
T2K TrackMap #08 (for Public): 6 AM PST Sun Oct 04
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18 GMT Sat Oct 03
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sun Oct 04
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image new!
NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
In Effect: BATANES-CALAYAN-BABUYAN ISLANDS, NORTHERN CAGAYAN, ILOCOS NORTE, & APAYAO.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: ILOCOS SUR, ABRA, KALINGA, & REST OF CAGAYAN.

The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03).

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: LA UNION, BENGUET, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, ISABELA, PANGASINAN, & NUEVA VIZCAYA.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 04 OCTOBER: 19.3N 120.4E / 130-160 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / NNW @ 05 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 05 OCTOBER: 19.9N 120.2E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / NNE @ 04 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 06 OCTOBER: 20.6N 120.6E / 160-195 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / E @ 04 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 07 OCTOBER: 20.4N 121.3E / 165-205 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / ESE @ 04 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 04 OCTOBER POSITION: 18.6N 120.9E.
*TY 19W IS STARTING TO EMERGE OVER WATER IN THE STRAIT OF LUZON AFTER HAVING
PASSED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM HAS
DEGRADED SLIGHTLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND, BUT STILL HAS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS
SEEN IN RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY IN THE STRAIT OF LUZON THROUGH 96. AFTER TAU 72, EITHER
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA OR THE STR SOUTH OF
JAPAN WILL BECOME THE PREDOMINATE STEERING INFLUENCE. JGSM, EGRR AND
NOGAPS FAVOR THE STR TO THE WEST OVER CHINA TO BUILD EASTWARD AFTER
TAU 72 AND THIS WILL SLOWLY START TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. GFDN, GFS, AND ECMWF DEPICT A SECOND, AND MORE LIKELY,
SCENARIO IN WHICH THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS BEHIND THE
APPROACHING TY 20W AT TAU 96 AND STEERS 19W TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST, THIS
FORECAST FAVORS IT BECOMING THE PREDOMINATE STEERING FLOW. A FURTHER
COMPLICATION IN THE FORECAST IS THE PREDICTED DISTANCE BETWEEN TY
19W AND TY 20W AROUND TAU 48. THE SYSTEMS WILL BE APPROACHING A
SEPARATION DISTANCE THAT IS CONDUCIVE TO DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION
(DCI). BECAUSE 19W IS IN SUCH A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, IT WILL
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DCI AND WILL LIKELY SEE A SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION
BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 96. THE SYSTEM IS STILL AT TYPHOON INTENSITY,
BASED ON ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RE-
INTENSIFY IN THE STRAIT OF LUZON, BUT IT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER, WHICH IS TYPICAL OF SLOW-MOVING
SYSTEMS...(more)

>> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms). Name contributed by: Macau, China.
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY PARMA (PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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