Saturday, October 17, 2009

Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) drifting slowly Northward... [Update #010]

 


for Saturday, 17 October 2009 [11:52 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri October 16 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)


LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 kph

TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 010

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Sat 16 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #013
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) continues to slow down while over the Philippine Sea with little change in strength...likely to remain almost stationary for the next 24 hours.

    *Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to slow down further and may remain quasi-stationary for the next 24 to 36 hours. A passing mid-level low pressure (trough) is expected to weaken the steering ridge north of LUPIT, thus allowing the typhoon to stall momentarily. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT starting to move on a Westward track as a new High Pressure Steering Ridge building off China-Taiwan area strengthens, driving LUPIT West to WSW-ward towards Extreme Northern Luzon between Monday to Thursday (Oct 19-22). LUPIT shall make landfall over Northern Cagayan on Wednesday morning Oct 21 and move across Abra and Ilocos Norte late Wednesday afternoon. It shall be over the South China Sea on Thursday Oct 22. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a possibility that LUPIT may track WSW earlier than forecasted and track across Central Luzon - if the new high pressure ridge located off China strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

    + Effects: LUPIT's circulation continues to organize while at sea, and remains a large-sized system, about 815 km. in diameter. Its southern outer feeder bands now expected to leave Ulithi and Yap Islands - where improving weather conditions can be expected today. This typhoon is not yet affecting Luzon, however, if the forecast track pushes through, deteriorating weathern conditions can be expected beginning Monday. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sat October 17 2009
    Location of Eye: 15.4º N Lat 132.4º E Lon
    Distance 1: 895 km (485 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
    Distance 2: 930 km (502 nm) ENE of Gota, Caramoan
    Distance 3: 1,010 km (545 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
    Distance 4: 1,030 km (555 nm) ENE of Daet, Cam Norte
    Distance 5: 1,105 km (597 nm) ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
    Distance 6: 1,150 km (620 nm) ENE of Infanta, Quezon
    Distance 7: 1,215 km (655 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    160 kph (85 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.8-2.6 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: NW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Extreme Northern Luzon
    Size (in Diameter): 815 km (440 nm) / Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 19 ft (5.7 m)
    T2K TrackMap #008 (for Public): 12 PM PST Sat Oct 17
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    8 AM Sat Oct 17
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Sat Oct 17
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 17 OCTOBER: 15.7N 132.5E / 175-215 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / NNW @ 05 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 18 OCTOBER: 16.3N 132.3E / 195-240 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / NW @ 05 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 19 OCTOBER: 17.0N 131.0E / 220-270 KPH (TY-Cat 4) / WNW @ 15 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 20 OCTOBER: 17.8N 127.6E / 230-280 KPH (TY-Cat 4) / W @ 22 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) SAT 17 OCTOBER POSITION: 15.1N 132.8E.
    *TY 22W IS CURRENTLY SLOWING AND TURNING TO THE NORTH AS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
    ERODES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE
    RIDGE ERODES, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH TAU 24
    BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN AND ACCELERATES THE SYSTEM TO THE
    WEST. ADDITIONALLY, THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE POLEWARD
    OUTFLOW FOR THE SYSTEM, AND THAT OPENS THE SYSTEM FOR ANOTHER PERIOD
    OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36...
    (
    more)

    >> LUPIT, meaning: Cruel; viciousnessName contributed by: Philippines.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
    > 10 AM (02 GMT) 17 OCTOBER: 15.2N 132.3E / WNW @ 13 kph / 130 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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