Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD PARMA (PEPENG) reaches the South China Sea... [Update #031]

for Friday, 09 October 2009 [6:03 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue October 06 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly SMS, web & e-mail advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TD PARMA (PEPENG).

PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 60 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 031
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Fri 09 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC TC FIX
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Depression PARMA (PEPENG) now off the coast of Ilocos Sur...moving westward into the South China Sea...Rains to continue across Western Luzon.

*Residents and visitors along Western Luzon should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to accelerate West to WNW-ward across the South China Sea and exit PAR tomorrow. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows PARMA accelerating WNW, regaining back to TS status. PARMA is forecast to make landfall over the southern part of Hainan Island early Tuesday Oct 13, with forecast wind velocity of 75 kph.

+ Effects: PARMA's circulation still covers half of Luzon (Wester portion)...Widespread rains from La Union down to Bataan can still be expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA or along mountains slopes particularly along its path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Extratropical Storm MELOR (QUEDAN) now south of Kuril Islands. Click here to view the final T2K advisory.

(2) Strong Tropical Disturbance 92W [LPA] has become Tropical Depression 21W (NONAME)...moving Northeast, following the path of MELOR (QUEDAN). Watch for the separate page on this system today. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Fri October 09 2009
Location of Center: 17.2º N Lat 120.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 55 km (30 nm) SSW of Vigan City
Distance 2: 70 km (38 nm) NNW of San Fernando City
Distance 3: 105 km (57 nm) NW of Baguio City
Distance 4: 125 km (67 nm) SSW of Laoag City
Distance 5: 135 km (73 nm) NNW of Dagupan City
Distance 6: 310 km (157 nm) NNW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
T2K TrackMap #019 (for Public): 6 AM PST Fri Oct 09
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Fri Oct 9
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 AM Fri Oct 9
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image
NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: CAGAYAN, ISABELA, ILOCOS PROVINCES, APAYAO, ABRA, KALINGA, IFUGAO, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, BENGUET, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, AURORA, NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC, PAMPANGA, ZAMBALES, BATAAN & BULACAN.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 09 OCTOBER: 17.1N 119.1E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / W @ 09 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 10 OCTOBER: 17.3N 118.1E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / WNW @ 09 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 11 OCTOBER: 17.9N 115.9E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 12 OCTOBER: 18.5N 113.3E / 75-95 KPH (TS) / W @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 09 OCTOBER POSITION: 17.1N 120.1E.
*RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP POCKETS OF CONVECTION PULSING OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE LOST MOST OF ITS BANDING AND ORGANIZATION
AS IT PASSED OVER THE ISLAND OF LUZON IN THE LAST 12 HOURS, BUT HAS MAINTAINED A GOOD SOUTHWESTWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A 081747Z AMSR-E PASS SHOWS AN LLCC THAT HAS JUST MOVED BACK OVER WATER WITH DEEP
CONVECTION CONSTRAINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE STEERING INFLUENCES IN THE REGION CONTINUE TO
BECOME MORE DEFINED, AND THE SYSTEM MOVING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, IT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 24. OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN GOOD TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, AND THE CURRENT TRACK HAS GOOD CONFIDENCE...(more)

>> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms). Name contributed by: Macau, China.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 09 OCTOBER: 17.2N 120.4E / West Slowly / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD PARMA (PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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