Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) slows down...now Category 2... [Update #008]

for Saturday, 17 October 2009 [6:32 AM PST]

<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on RAMIL!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri October 16 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 kph

TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Fri 16 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #012
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) has slowed down and rapidly intensified while over the Philippine Sea...now at Category 2.

*Residents and visitors along Northern & Central Luzon should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to reduce its forward speed from 20 kph to just 5 kph w/ in the next 24 to 48. A passing mid-level low pressure (trough) is expected to weaken the steering ridge north of LUPIT, thus its slow movement. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT resuming its WNW or Westward track as a new High Pressure Steering Ridge off Taiwan develops, driving LUPIT towards Extreme Northern Luzon between Monday to Thursday (Oct 19-22). *Initial Impact Forecast (IIF): LUPIT will make landfall over Northern Cagayan on Wednesday morning, Oct 21 and exit thru Ilocos Norte Wednesday evening (Oct 22) - a track similar to the recent Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG). Please be reminded that the IIF changes every 6 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation continues to organize while at sea, and is now a large-sized system, about 815 km. in diameter. Its southern outer feeder bands now expected to leave Ulithi and Yap Islands - where improving weather conditions can be expected today. This typhoon is not yet affecting Luzon, however, if the forecast track pushes through, deteriorating weathern conditions can be expected beginning Monday. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sat October 17 2009
Location of Eye: 14.9º N Lat 132.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 885 km (478 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 935 km (505 nm) ENE of Gota, Caramoan
Distance 3: 1,000 km (540 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 4: 1,025 km (553 nm) ENE of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 5: 1,115 km (602 nm) ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 1,150 km (620 nm) East of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 7: 1,215 km (655 nm) East of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph (85 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.8-2.6 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Extreme Northern Luzon
Size (in Diameter): 815 km (440 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
T2K TrackMap #007 (for Public): 6 AM PST Sat Oct 17
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Sat Oct 17
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sat Oct 17
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 17 OCTOBER: 14.8N 132.3E / 175-215 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / WNW @ 05 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 18 OCTOBER: 15.1N 131.8E / 195-240 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / NNW @ 05 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 19 OCTOBER: 16.1N 130.9E / 220-270 KPH (TY-Cat 4) / WNW @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 20 OCTOBER: 17.0N 128.0E / 230-280 KPH (TY-Cat 4) / WNW @ 20 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) SAT 17 OCTOBER POSITION: 14.5N 133.2E.
*RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE, TIGHTLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM
WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). ALSO EVIDENT IS A SLIGHT DEFORMATION OF THE SYSTEM ON
THE NORTHWEST SIDE DUE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. 161658Z
AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
INTO AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE. THE STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED GREATLY IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED, AS BASED ON
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW OF 90KTS AND KNES OF 77KTS. THE SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EAST-WEST
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. THE APPROACH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE STR AND
ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE SLOWING AND TRACK SLIGHTLY POLEWARD
AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE IS DISRUPTED. UPON COMPLETION OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD AND THE SYSTEM WILL
ACCELERATE TO THE WEST. DURING THE PERIOD WHERE THE TROUGH IS TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 48 BEFORE LEVELING OFF NEAR SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH
DISCREPANCIES IN THE DEGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TURN POLEWARD IN
RESPONSE TO THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TCLAPS, GFDN AND GFS TRACK THE
SYSTEM MORE POLEWARD IN EXCESSIVE RESPONSE TO THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
WITH UKMO, ECMWF, JGSM AND NOGAPS GIVING LESS RESPONSE. THIS
FORECAST FAVORS THE LATTER SOLUTION BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE STR AND
SPEED OF THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW...(more)

>> LUPIT, meaning: Cruel; viciousness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (20 GMT) 17 OCTOBER: 14.6N 133.2E / WNW @ 20 kph / 120 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm