for Friday, 09 October 2009 [4:50 PM PST]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri October 09 2009):
Currently issuing 6-hrly SMS, web & e-mail advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS PARMA (PEPENG).
PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 60 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 033
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Fri 09 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #047
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
PARMA (PEPENG) regained strength and has been upgraded into a Tropical Storm...continues to drift slowly away from the coast of Western Luzon.
*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to track WNW across the South China Sea for the next 3 days and exit PAR tomorrow. The 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows PARMA accelerating WNW, reaching 85 kph as it approaches Hainan Island. PARMA is forecast to make two landfalls over Hainan Island on Tuesday Oct 13 and over Vietnam on Wednesday Oct 14.
+ Effects: PARMA's circulation continues to move slowly, away from Western Luzon...Light rains can still be expected from its outer bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA or along mountains slopes particularly along its path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:
(1) Tropical Storm NEPARTAK [21W] upgraded from TD 21W continues to drift slowly NNW...following the path of MELOR (QUEDAN) off Kuril Islands. Watch for the separate page on this system tonight. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Fri October 09 2009
Location of Center: 17.0º N Lat 119.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 115 km (63 nm) WNW of San Fernando City
Distance 2: 135 km (73 nm) SW of Vigan City
Distance 3: 155 km (83 nm) WNW of Baguio City
Distance 4: 155 km (83 nm) NW of Dagupan City
Distance 5: 330 km (180 nm) NNW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Fri Oct 9
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Fri Oct 9
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image
NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION & WESTERN PANGASINAN.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Fri October 09 2009
Location of Center: 17.0º N Lat 119.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 70 km (38 nm) NW of San Fernando City
Distance 2: 90 km (48 nm) SW of Vigan City
Distance 3: 110 km (60 nm) NW of Baguio City
Distance 4: 125 km (67 nm) NNW of Dagupan City
Distance 5: 300 km (160 nm) NNW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
T2K TrackMap #020 (for Public): 12 PM PST Fri Oct 09
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Fri Oct 9
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Fri Oct 9
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image
NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, ABRA, LA UNION & PANGASINAN.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.
JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:
2 AM (18 GMT) 10 OCTOBER: 17.1N 118.6E / 75-95 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 07 KPH
<<<Typhoon2000.
Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on PEPENG!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri October 09 2009):
Currently issuing 6-hrly SMS, web & e-mail advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS PARMA (PEPENG).
PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 60 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PEPENG/19W/
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 033
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Fri 09 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #047
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to track WNW across the South China Sea for the next 3 days and exit PAR tomorrow. The 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows PARMA accelerating WNW, reaching 85 kph as it approaches Hainan Island. PARMA is forecast to make two landfalls over Hainan Island on Tuesday Oct 13 and over Vietnam on Wednesday Oct 14.
+ Effects: PARMA's circulation continues to move slowly, away from Western Luzon...Light rains can still be expected from its outer bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...
(1) Tropical Storm NEPARTAK [21W] upgraded from TD 21W continues to drift slowly NNW...following the path of MELOR (QUEDAN) off Kuril Islands. Watch for the separate page on this system tonight. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Fri October 09 2009
Location of Center: 17.0º N Lat 119.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 115 km (63 nm) WNW of San Fernando City
Distance 2: 135 km (73 nm) SW of Vigan City
Distance 3: 155 km (83 nm) WNW of Baguio City
Distance 4: 155 km (83 nm) NW of Dagupan City
Distance 5: 330 km (180 nm) NNW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Fri Oct 9
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Fri Oct 9
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image
NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION & WESTERN PANGASINAN.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Fri October 09 2009
Location of Center: 17.0º N Lat 119.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 70 km (38 nm) NW of San Fernando City
Distance 2: 90 km (48 nm) SW of Vigan City
Distance 3: 110 km (60 nm) NW of Baguio City
Distance 4: 125 km (67 nm) NNW of Dagupan City
Distance 5: 300 km (160 nm) NNW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
T2K TrackMap #020 (for Public): 12 PM PST Fri Oct 09
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Fri Oct 9
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Fri Oct 9
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image
NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, ABRA, LA UNION & PANGASINAN.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.
2 AM (18 GMT) 10 OCTOBER: 17.1N 118.6E / 75-95 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 07 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 10 OCTOBER: 17.3N 117.7E / 55-75 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 11 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 11 OCTOBER: 18.0N 115.0E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 13 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 12 OCTOBER: 18.7N 112.3E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / W @ 13 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 11 OCTOBER: 18.0N 115.0E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 13 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 12 OCTOBER: 18.7N 112.3E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / W @ 13 KPH
REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 09 OCTOBER POSITION: 17.0N 119.5E.
*THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
CLASSIFICATION BASED ON SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND A 082337Z QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS. DUE TO THE POOR
PRESENTATION IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
DVORAK FIXES HAVE FALLEN TO A 1.5/2.0 FROM PGTW AS MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS SHALLOWED, LEAVING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF MODERATELY SHEARED CUMULUS. THE STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A STEERING RIDGE THAT HAS BEGUN TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHERN
CHINA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY RELAX OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY BEYOND 45 KNOTS WITH THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH RESTRICTING POLEWARD VENTING/OUTFLOW.
>> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms). Name contributed by: Macau, China.
____________
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
> 4 PM (08 GMT) 09 OCTOBER: 17.5N 118.6E / West @ 13 kph / 55 kph
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/ ) ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.
NOTE:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD PARMA (PEPENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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