Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MIRINAE

for Wednesday, 28 October 2009 [5:35 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed October 28 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY MIRINAE (23W).

MIRINAE (PRE-SANTI/23W/0921) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 kph

TYPHOON MIRINAE [PRE-SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Wed 28 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #008
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

MIRINAE (PRE-SANTI) rapidly intensified into a Typhoon, gaining speed as it tracks Westerly towards the Philippine Sea...expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight.

*Residents and visitors along the eastern coasts of Luzon (Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (PRE-SANTI).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook remains slightly the same...expected to continue tracking Westward within the next 1-2 days, will enter PAR tonight. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system turning a little WSW beginning tomorrow afternoon until end of the forecast...will be approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on early Saturday morning, Oct 31 as a Category 3 Typhoon (185 kph), passing more or less 300 km. North of Camarines Sur. The core shall make landfall north of Casiguran, Aurora Saturday afternoon Oct 31 and cross Southern Isabela, Quirino, Benguet, La Union and exit thru Lingayen Gulf-Cape Bolinao Area in Northern Pangasinan on Sunday morning, Nov 1st. MIRINAE will be in the middle of the South China Sea on Monday, November 02. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night, showed the system passing north of Camarines Norte and traversing Polillo Islands and making landfall over Northern Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, and Zambales beginning Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning (Oct 31-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's strong circulation has become more compact...continues to improve. Its rainbands remains at sea and not yet affecting any major islands. The initial effects of the outer rainbands over Eastern Luzon can be expected beginning Friday, Oct 30. 6 to 12-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 90 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 120 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Wed October 28 2009
Location of Eye: 16.2º N Lat 139.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 680 km (367 nm) NW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 450 km (243 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 1,615 km (872 nm) ENE of Bicol Region
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
6 to 12-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 120 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 35 kph (19 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Southern Isabela-Northern Aurora Area
Size (in Diameter): 520 km (280 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft (5.1 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Wed Oct 28
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Wed Oct 28
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Wed Oct 28
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 28 OCTOBER: 16.5N 136.7E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 30 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 29 OCTOBER: 16.9N 133.3E / 160-195 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / W @ 24 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 30 OCTOBER: 17.2N 127.7E / 175-215 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / W @ 17 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 31 OCTOBER: 16.8N 124.0E / 185-230 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / W @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) WED 28 OCTOBER POSITION: 15.9N 140.2E.
*ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 271638Z AMSR-E
IMAGE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IS EVIDENT IN THE
AMSR-E PASS WITH DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING COMPLETELY AROUND THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF MIRINAE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS LINKED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE NORTH OF MIRINAE AND HAS HELPED TO FUEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGH ON THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
AS THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW RE-ALIGNS AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL. TY 23W IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING THROUGH TAU 72 PRIOR TO LANDFALL
WITH LUZON; DECREASING AS IT TRACKS OVER LUZON INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. LAND INTERACTION WILL SLOW MIRINAE FROM TAU 72 THROUGH 120 AS
IT TRACKS OVER LUZON, BUT THE CYCLONE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TRACK SPEED UPON RE-ENTERING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA...(more)

>> MIRINAE, meaning: Milky Way. Name contributed by: Korea.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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LATEST 6-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): NEW!!!

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=TWENTYTHRE)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY MIRINAE (23W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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