for Thursday, 29 October 2009 [6:19 AM PST]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed October 28 2009):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS & email advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY MIRINAE (SANTI).
MIRINAE (SANTI/23W/0921) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 kph
TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Thu 29 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #012
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Typhoon MIRINAE (SANTI) still on a slightly fast westerly track towards Luzon...expected to make landfall somewhere between Aurora and Northern Quezon...Full preparations must be implemented at this time.
*Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon (from Batanes down to Bicol Peninsula) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook has changed slightly to the south...expected to continue tracking on a straight Westward track within the next 24 hours. The 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Friday evening, Oct 30, passing more or less 250 km. North of Bicol Region. The core shall make landfall over Casiguran, Aurora early Saturday morning Oct 31 and cross Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, Northern Pangasinan, La Union and exit thru Lingayen Gulf-Cape Bolinao Area in Northern Pangasinan. MIRINAE will be in the middle of the South China Sea on Monday, November 02...and will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm as it approaches Central Vietnam on November 02. MIRINAE shall dissipate after making its final landfall over Vietnam on November 03. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night (Oct 28), showed the system making landfall over Northern Quezon, Rizal, Bulacan, Pampanga, and Zambales beginning Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning (Oct 31-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more and pushes MIRINAE more Southwestward. This scenario remains weak at this time. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.
+ Effects: MIRINAE's compact circulation has slightly expanded as it moves over a slightly warm Philippine Sea. Its EYE remains cloud-filled. The rainbands of this typhoon remains at sea and not yet affecting any major islands. The initial effects of the outer rainbands of MIRINAE over Eastern Luzon can be expected beginning Friday morning, Oct 30. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 80 mm (moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 200 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Thu October 29 2009
Location of Eye: 16.2º N Lat 132.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 970 km (525 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 1,015 km (548 nm) ENE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 1,050 km (567 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 1,080 km (583 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 1,100 km (595 nm) ENE of Daet, Cam.Norte
Distance 6: 1,155 km (623 nm) East of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 7: 1,210 km (653 nm) East of Baler, Aurora
Distance 8: 1,275 km (690 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph (85 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Aurora
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 27 ft (8.2 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Thu Oct 29
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Thu Oct 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Thu Oct 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
Now In Effect: ISABELA, AURORA, NORTHERN QUEZON AND POLILLO ISLANDS.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight or early tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:
2 PM (06 GMT) 29 OCTOBER: 16.2N 130.7E / 165-205 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / W @ 26 KPH
<<<Typhoon2000.
Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on SANTI!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed October 28 2009):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS & email advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY MIRINAE (SANTI).
MIRINAE (SANTI/23W/0921) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 kph
TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Thu 29 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #012
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
*Residents and visitors along the eastern coast of Luzon (from Batanes down to Bicol Peninsula) should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE's forecast outlook has changed slightly to the south...expected to continue tracking on a straight Westward track within the next 24 hours. The 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system approaching the eastern coast of Luzon on Friday evening, Oct 30, passing more or less 250 km. North of Bicol Region. The core shall make landfall over Casiguran, Aurora early Saturday morning Oct 31 and cross Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, Northern Pangasinan, La Union and exit thru Lingayen Gulf-Cape Bolinao Area in Northern Pangasinan. MIRINAE will be in the middle of the South China Sea on Monday, November 02...and will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm as it approaches Central Vietnam on November 02. MIRINAE shall dissipate after making its final landfall over Vietnam on November 03. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest ECMWF Extended Forecast issued at 8PM last night (Oct 28), showed the system making landfall over Northern Quezon, Rizal, Bulacan, Pampanga, and Zambales beginning Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning (Oct 31-Nov 01). This AFS track may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge off SE China and Taiwan strengthens more and pushes MIRINAE more Southwestward. This scenario remains weak at this time. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.
+ Effects: MIRINAE's compact circulation has slightly expanded as it moves over a slightly warm Philippine Sea. Its EYE remains cloud-filled. The rainbands of this typhoon remains at sea and not yet affecting any major islands. The initial effects of the outer rainbands of MIRINAE over Eastern Luzon can be expected beginning Friday morning, Oct 30. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 to 80 mm (moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Thu October 29 2009
Location of Eye: 16.2º N Lat 132.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 970 km (525 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 1,015 km (548 nm) ENE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 1,050 km (567 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 1,080 km (583 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 1,100 km (595 nm) ENE of Daet, Cam.Norte
Distance 6: 1,155 km (623 nm) East of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 7: 1,210 km (653 nm) East of Baler, Aurora
Distance 8: 1,275 km (690 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph (85 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Aurora
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 27 ft (8.2 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Thu Oct 29
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Thu Oct 29
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Thu Oct 29
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
Now In Effect: ISABELA, AURORA, NORTHERN QUEZON AND POLILLO ISLANDS.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight or early tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides..
2 PM (06 GMT) 29 OCTOBER: 16.2N 130.7E / 165-205 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / W @ 26 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 30 OCTOBER: 16.1N 127.7E / 175-215 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / W @ 24 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 31 OCTOBER: 16.1N 122.3E / 165-205 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / W @ 22 KPH (LANDFALL)
2 AM (18 GMT) 01 NOVEMBER: 16.4N 117.2E / 130-160 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 24 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 31 OCTOBER: 16.1N 122.3E / 165-205 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / W @ 22 KPH (LANDFALL)
2 AM (18 GMT) 01 NOVEMBER: 16.4N 117.2E / 130-160 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 24 KPH
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) THU 29 OCTOBER POSITION: 16.3N 133.7E.
*RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS EVIDENCE OF EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR THAT HAS CAUSED MIRINAE TO LOSE ITS EYE-LIKE FEATURE OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM STILL HAS GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS WELL AS ACCESS TO
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 15 TO 20 DEGREES EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
OUTFLOW HAS ENABLED MIRINAE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND SHOULD HELP
THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY BY ANOTHER 10 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT DAY. OVER
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS MIRINAE IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, ON METSAT IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW (77 KNOTS),
RJTD (90 KNOTS) AND KNES (90 KNOTS)...(more)
>> MIRINAE, meaning: Milky Way. Name contributed by: Korea.
____________
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 29 OCTOBER: 16.2N 133.5E / WEST @ 26 kph / 150 kph
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.
____________
RECENT TYPHOON2000.
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/ ) ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.
LATEST 6-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): NEW!!!
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=TWENTYTHRE )____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.
NOTE:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY MIRINAE (SANTI)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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