Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS LUPIT (RAMIL) moving away from RP... [Update #032]

for Saturday, 24 October 2009 [6:51 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat October 24 2009):

Continuing issuing 6-hrly web, email and SMS advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS LUPIT (RAMIL)

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 kph

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 032
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sat 24 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #042
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL) maintaining its intensity as it moves NNE away from the Philippines...now threatens Okinawa and the Ryukyus (Southern Islands of Japan).

*Residents and visitors along Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue tracking NNE to NE-ward under the steering influence of the high pressure ridge located to the ESE. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT turning ENE as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow afternoon. It shall be downgraded into a depression on Tuesday and dissipate over water. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: LUPIT's weak circulation continues to deteriorate while moving NNE. Outer rainbands now spreading into Okinawa and the Ryukyus...rains and winds of not in excess of 60 kph can be expected. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 100 to 300 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of LUPIT. Click here to view the latest eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sat October 24 2009
Location of Center: 23.1º N Lat 125.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 495 km (267 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 675 km (365 nm) NNE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 475 km (255 nm) SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 440 km (328 nm) SSW of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (70 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 100-300 mm new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NNE @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft (8.5 m)
T2K TrackMap #028 (for Public): 6 PM PST Sat Oct 24
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Sat Oct 24
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 PM Sat Oct 24
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 AM (18 GMT) 25 OCTOBER: 23.6N 126.5E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / NE @ 15 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 25 OCTOBER: 24.8N 127.6E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / NE @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 26 OCTOBER: 26.2N 130.5E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / E @ 07 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 27 OCTOBER: 26.3N 132.4E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / WSW @ 05 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) SAT 24 OCTOBER POSITION: 22.3N 125.5E.
*THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND ON A RADAR REPORT FROM JAPAN. CURRENT
INTENSITY IS AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND
KNES. AN EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST HAS
BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE SYSTEM. TS 22W IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THIS
RIDGE BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS DRY AIR WILL INTRUDE ALONG THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STORM. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL START TO
ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT GAINS
LATITUDE. BEYOND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BE REDUCED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AND WILL DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT DECOUPLES FROM ITS
VERTICAL STRUCTURE AND STARTS TO TRACK WITH THE LOWER-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72. HOWEVER, BEYOND THAT, THE GFS, GFDN, UKMET, AND TCLAPS
SOLUTIONS DEPICT A FASTER, MORE INTENSE SYSTEM AND PROJECT THE SYSTEM
FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. SHOULD TS LUPIT
MAINTAIN A STRONGER INTENSITY, ITS TRACK WILL BE MORE POLEWARD...(more)

>> LUPIT, meaning: Cruel; viciousness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 24 OCTOBER: 22.8N 125.9E / NE @ 15 kph / 95 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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LATEST 24-HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): NEW!!!

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=LUPIT)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS LUPIT (RAMIL)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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