Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG) moving WNW fast... [Update #011]

for Thursday, 01 October 2009 [12:03 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu October 01 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on Super Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG).

PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 240 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 km/hr

SUPER TYPHOON PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 011
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Thu 01 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #014
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

PARMA (PEPENG) has explosively deepened into an extremely dangerous Super Typhoon (Category 4)...endangers the coastal areas of Bicol Region.

*Residents and visitors along the east coast of Bicol Region, the rest of Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to maintain its fast WNW track across the warm Philippine Sea and further intensify reaching to Category 5 strength with winds of 260 kph within the next 24 hours...it shall pass about 300 km. NE of Metro Naga/CWC tomorrow afternoon...and slowing down as it approaches the coast of Isabela. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system just drifting very slowly northwesterly - making landfall over Northern Cagayan on Sunday evening Oct. 04 and shall exit the Balintang Channel on Monday and Tuesday (Oct. 05-06).Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.

+ Effects: PARMA's circulation continues to move faster across the Philippine Sea w/ its outer (feeder) bands now affecting Eastern Visayas and the Bicol Region including Northern Mindanao - passing rains, squalls, thunderstorms w/ light to moderate winds may be expected along these areas today. Tropical Storm conditions w/ winds not exceeding 100 kph together with light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains can be expected along the eastern coast of Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, & Camarines Provinces tomorrow. While, the flood-stricken areas of Central and Southern Luzon including Metro Manila will be under the typhoon's outer bands tomorrow. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning today. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the eastern coastal areas of Bicol Region, Samar & Eastern Luzon. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Typhoon MELOR (20W) moving very slowly and threatens the Marianas. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.

Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Wed October 01 2009
Location of Pinhole Eye: 12.3º N Lat 129.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 575 km (310 nm) East of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 2: 625 km (338 nm) ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 645 km (348 nm) ESE of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 680 km (367 nm) ESE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 5: 680 km (367 nm) ESE of Legazpi City
Distance 6: 685 km (370 nm) East of Masbate City
Distance 7: 715 km (385 nm) ESE of Iriga City
Distance 8: 740 km (400 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 9: 985 km (532 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 240 kph (130 kts) near the eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph (160 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 13-18 feet [4.0-5.5 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Isabela-Cagayan Area
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft (8.5 m)
T2K TrackMap #03 (for Public): 12 PM PST Thu Oct 01
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00 GMT Thu Oct 01
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Thu Oct 01
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image new!
NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE & CATANDUANES.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

8 PM (12 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 13.1N 128.6E / 250-305 KPH (TY-Cat 5) / NW @ 24 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 14.5N 126.4E / 260-315 KPH (TY-Cat 5) / NW @ 15 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 16.7N 123.7E / 270-325 KPH (TY-Cat 5) / NW @ 05 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 04 OCTOBER: 17.6N 122.8E / 230-280 KPH (TY-Cat 4) / NW @ 07 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 01 OCTOBER POSITION: 11.8N 131.1E.
*SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 19W (PARMA) HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AND
HAS DEVELOPED A PIN-HOLE EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE WELL-DEFINED EYE. THE SYSTEM IS EXHIBITING
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
TO THE NORTH. CURRENT INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH A
DIVERGENT POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. TY 19W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...(more)

>> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms). Name contributed by: Macau, China.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 12.0N 130.7E / WNW @ 24 kph / 175 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT NWS-GUAM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on STY PARMA (PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm