Monday, October 26, 2009

TD 23W (UNNAMED) - Update #001

 


for Monday, 26 October 2009 [2:21 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon October 26 2009):

Starting the 6-hrly web advisories (except 12:00 AM) on this new system, TD 23W.


LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001 [INITIAL]

2:00 PM PST (06:00 GMT) Mon 26 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #001
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • The strong tropical disturbance (LPA) over Eastern Micronesia has strengthened into Tropical Depression 23W (UNNAMED)...accelerating WNW towards the Marianas...may pose a threat to the Philippines in the coming days.

    *Residents and visitors along the Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of 23W (UNNAMED).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: 23W is expected to quickly move more to the west within the next 2 days as the High Pressure Steering Ridge north of it strengthens...pushing 23W into the Philippine Sea. It shall attain Tropical Storm status later tonight. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning Oct 29, as a Category 1 Typhoon with winds of 140 kph...will be approaching the northern coast of Bicol Region on Saturday, Oct 31 as a Category 3 Typhoon with winds of 185 kph. *Initial Impact Forecast (IIF): The latest ECMWF 7-day extended forecast shows the system crossing Northern Bicol, Southern Tagalog Provinces including Metro Manila on Friday or Saturday (Oct 30-31). Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

    + Effects: 23W's developing circulation continues to consolidate. Its rainbands expected to reach Marianas including Guam later tonight...Gale-force winds w/ rains can be expected.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 2:00 PM PST Mon October 26 2009
    Location of Center: 13.2º N Lat 149.9º E Lon
    Distance 1: 550 km (297 nm) East of Guam, CNMI
    Distance 2: 1,610 km (870 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 3: 2,790 km (1,507 nm) East of Bicol Region, PH
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    45 kph (25 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
    24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): N/A
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Mariana Islands
    Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / Very Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Mon Oct 26
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    8 AM Mon Oct 26
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop 
     


  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 26 OCTOBER: 12.9N 148.5E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 24 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 27 OCTOBER: 13.5N 145.8E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / W @ 24 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 28 OCTOBER: 14.5N 140.5E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 24 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 29 OCTOBER: 15.1N 135.3E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 20 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) MON 26 OCTOBER POSITION: 12.2N 151.3E.
    *RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE
    IN CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
    CENTER (LLCC) AND A 251952Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS MULTIPLE
    LOW LEVEL BANDS CONVERGING NEAR THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER
    LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MINIMAL
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AS IT IS TRACKING
    JUST TO THE WEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. ADDITIONALLY, THE
    SYSTEM HAS ACCESS TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN ESTABLISHED TROPICAL
    UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 DEGREES TO
    THE EAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
    AND ASSOCIATED PGTW POSITION FIX WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF AN
    APPARENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DEPICTED IN A 251933Z
    QUIKSCAT PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON INITIAL DVORAK
    ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF 25 KNOTS...
    (
    more)

    >> LUPIT, meaning: Cruel; viciousnessName contributed by: Philippines.
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD 23W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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