Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 23W (UNNAMED)

for Monday, 26 October 2009 [5:56 PM PST]

<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon October 26 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web & email advisories (except 12:00 AM) on this new system, TD 23W.

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Mon 26 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #002
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Depression 23W (UNNAMED) intensifying as it nears Guam and the Marianas...may become a Tropical Storm later tonight.

*Residents and visitors along the Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of 23W (UNNAMED).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 23W is expected to turn westward within the next 2 days as the High Pressure Steering Ridge north of it strengthens...pushing 23W into the Philippine Sea. It will reach Typhoon intensity on Wednesday afternoon Oct 28. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning Oct 29...will be approaching the northern coast of Bicol Region on Saturday, Oct 31 as a Category 3 Typhoon with winds of 185 kph. *Initial Impact Forecast (IIF): The latest ECMWF 7-day extended forecast shows the system hitting Northern Bicol, Southern Tagalog Provinces including Metro Manila on Saturday or Sunday (Oct 30-Nov 01). Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: 23W's developing circulation continues to consolidate. Its rainbands expected to reach Marianas including Guam later tonight...Gale-force winds w/ rains can be expected. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 60 to 125 mm (moderate to heavy rain) near the center of 23W especially north of it. Click here to view the latest eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Mon October 26 2009
Location of Center: 12.8º N Lat 149.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 470 km (255 nm) ESE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 1,530 km (825 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 2,685 km (1,450 nm) East of Bicol Region, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 60-125 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Mariana Islands
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Mon Oct 26
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Mon Oct 26
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 AM (18 GMT) 27 OCTOBER: 13.4N 147.3E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 26 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 27 OCTOBER: 14.1N 144.6E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / W @ 26 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 28 OCTOBER: 14.7N 138.9E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 22 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 29 OCTOBER: 14.9N 133.8E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 22 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) MON 26 OCTOBER POSITION: 12.7N 149.9E.
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE BANDS
CONSOLIDATING TOWARDS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT DUE TO OVERCAST DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. TD 23W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRAJECTORY THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT THE EXTENDED
TAUS AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE WARMER WATERS OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE
MINIMAL NUMERIC GUIDANCE THAT IS AVAILABLE SUPPORTS THIS TRACK
FORECAST WITH WBAR AS THE RIGHTMOST OUTLIER. EGRR IS LEFT OF THE PACK
FAVORING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS LEFT OF
CONSENSUS...(more)

>> LUPIT, meaning: Cruel; viciousness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 23W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm