Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) slows down as it nears Cagayan's Coast...[Update #024]

for Thursday, 22 October 2009 [5:58 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed October 21 2009):

Continuing issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 kph
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr

TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 024
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Thu 22 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #032
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) slows down as it nears the coast of Cagayan...outer rainbands affecting Cagayan, Isabela & Aurora.

*Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to decelerate further to just 4 kph while moving WSW w/in the next 24 to 36 hours. Its wind speed will slightly strengthen back to minimal Category 2 (160 kph) as it moves closer to the coast of Cagayan due to improved atmospheric conditions (warm ocean moisture & unstable air). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT making landfall over the northern tip of Cagayan Saturday morning, Oct 24 and shall turn westward slowly. It shall continue moving on a slow trek across the Northern coastal areas of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte throughout the weekend until Monday Oct 26. LUPIT shall be off Northern Coast of Ilocos Norte late Monday evening as a downgraded Tropical Storm. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track abruptly Northward and recurving towards Southern Japan, sparing Extreme Northern Luzon on a direct hit. This scenario is likely as half of the many models deviates from the existing forecast. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation remains organized & large with a cloud-filled EYE. The core and its inner rainbands remains at sea...however, its outer rainbands has been already affecting Cagayan, Isabela & Aurora since last night. Cloudy skies w/ light passing rains & winds not exceeding 55 kph can be expected along the outer bands. Deteriorating weather conditions is likely if the forecast track pushes through in the coming days. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Thu October 22 2009
Location of Eye: 19.0º N Lat 125.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 370 km (200 nm) ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 385 km (208 nm) ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 400 km (215 nm) NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 410 km (222 nm) NE of Ilagan City
Distance 5: 455 km (245 nm) NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 495 km (267 nm) ENE of Laoag City
Distance 7: 635 km (343 nm) NNE of Naga City
Distance 8: 655 km (355 nm) NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the Eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Rainbands' Rain Rate: 2 to 30 mm/hr (.02 to 1.2 in/hr) new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Cagayan
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 31 ft (9.4 m)
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Thu Oct 22
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Thu Oct 22
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
In Effect: BATANES GROUP, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN ISLANDS, APAYAO, KALINGA, & ISABELA.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, ABRA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, BENGUET, LA UNION, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, & AURORA.

The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning tonight or tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: PANGASINAN, TARLAC, NUEVA ECIJA, ZAMBALES, PAMPANGA, BULACAN, NORTHERN QUEZON, & POLILLO ISLANDS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight or tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves) that could reach a high of 5 feet or more.

JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 22 OCTOBER: 18.8N 124.4E / 150-185 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WSW @ 09 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 23 OCTOBER: 18.5N 123.5E / 160-195 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / WSW @ 05 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 24 OCTOBER: 18.2N 122.4E / 150-185 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 04 KPH -- LANDFALL
2 AM (18 GMT) 25 OCTOBER: 18.3N 121.7E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WNW @ 04 KPH -- LANDFALL

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) THU 22 OCTOBER POSITION: 19.1N 125.3E.
*RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING, DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. A 211715Z AMSR-E PASS SHOWS
MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL FORMED EYE-LIKE
FEATURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS (37GHZ). THE UPPER LEVEL IMAGE (89GHZ),
HOWEVER, SHOWS THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE OPEN ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
LLCC. POSITION IS BASED ON THE 211715Z AMSR-E PASS AND INTENSITY IS
BASED ON ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A
REGION OF WEAKER STEERING AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS YET TO COME FULLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT OF THE
SYSTEM BEING IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
IN POOR AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF TY 22W. TWO VERY DISTINCT
SCENARIOS EXIST FOR THE TRACK. THE FIRST SCENARIO, FAVORED BY
NOGAPS, JGSM, AND UKMO IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE SLOWLY TRACKING
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A FINGER OF THE STR TO THE WEST. UNDER THIS SCENARIO,
AROUND TAU 72, A SHORT-WAVE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA, ERODE THE FINGER OF THE STR, AND THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
QUASISTATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRAIT OF LUZON. THE SECOND
SCENARIO, FAVORED BY GFS, ECMWF GFDN AND WBAR CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO
RAPIDLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24 UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WESTERLY SURGE FROM THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STR TO
THE WEST. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE SYSTEM WOULD THEN BE PICKED UP BY
THE FLOW AROUND THE STR TO THE EAST AND WOULD THEN TRACK INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. A THOROUGH ANALYSIS OF THE DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW AROUND THE STR TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM INDICATES THAT TY 22W
IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE STR AXIS, AS IT IS DEPICTED IN THE
INITIALIZATION OF NOGAPS, JGSM AND UKMO, AND IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED BY FLOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STR. FOR THIS REASON,
THE FORECAST FAVORS THE FIRST SCENARIO, BUT THE SECOND SCENARIO
REMAINS PLAUSIBLE...(more)

>> LUPIT, meaning: Cruel; viciousness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 22 OCTOBER: 19.0N 125.3E / WSW Slowly / 160 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm