Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MIRINAE (SANTI) approaching the Northern Coast of Bicol... [Update #014]

for Friday, 30 October 2009 [11:30 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed October 28 2009):

Now issuing 3-hrly Web, SMS & E-mail Advisories on TY MIRINAE (SANTI).

MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 kph

EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES:

+ Camarines Norte: 8PM until 11PM tonight
+ Northern Quezon: 12MN until 4AM tomorrow
+ Metro Manila: 2AM until 6AM tomorrow.

Note: The EyeWall - is a ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon. It is here where the strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found. EPFT will show what local times on a given area the most damaging winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT changes everytime a new warning synopsis is issued. Important: This is only an estimate analysis, do not use this for life or death decisions.

TYPHOON MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 014
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Fri 30 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC SATFIX & WARNING #017
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon MIRINAE (SANTI) has slightly moved again WSW...approaching the coastal areas of Northern Bicol...endangers Camarines Norte.

*Residents and visitors along the Bicol Region, Eastern, Southern and Central Luzon should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: The core (eye & eyewall) of MIRINAE is expected track more WSW within the next 12 hours, passing very close to Northern Camarines Sur...about 120 km. North of Naga City or 70 km. North of Siruma around 6 PM tonight...and passing very close to Camarines Norte - about 65 km. North of Daet around 8 PM tonight. Around midnight, the core will move across Polillo Island and make landfall over Infanta, Quezon around 2 AM tomorrow, Saturday...then traverse Central Luzon passing over Rizal-Northern Metro Manila around 3 AM...hitting Quezon City around 4 AM (about 28 km. North of Manila)...and across the Provinces of Bulacan, Southern Pampanga and Southern Zambales...passing over Subic Bay/Olongapo area between 5-9 AM tomorrow. Around noontime tomorrow, MIRINAE will be over the South China Sea. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system approaching the coast of Vietnam as a downgraded Tropical Storm due to increase wind shear over the area on Nov 1 through Nov 2...and then will make landfall over Vietnam on Monday Nov 02 and dissipate over Cambodia on Tuesday, Nov 03. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's convective circulation remains strong as it moves closer to the Coast of Northern Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. The EYE remains cloud-filled w/ inner rainbands now beginning to spread over Catanduanes...where stormy conditions not exceeding 100 kph can be expected. Its outer rainbands continues to spread across the whole Bicol Region...deteriorating across Camarines Provinces as the typhoon approaches...Strong winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected along the outer bands. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 10 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy to very heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & Northern Visayas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Fri October 30 2009
Location of Eye: 15.0º N Lat 124.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 165 km (90 nm) NNE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 165 km (90 nm) NE of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 3: 225 km (123 nm) NNE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 225 km (123 nm) NE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 220 km (120 nm) ENE of Daet, Cam.Norte
Distance 6: 310 km (168 nm) SE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 7: 325 km (175 nm) ENE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 8: 345 km (185 nm) ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 9: 390 km (210 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (105 kts)
Click to view: Mirinae's Wind Analysis new!
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 31 kph (17 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Polillo-N.Quezon-Metro Manila
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft (8.5 m)
T2K TrackMap #05 (for Public): 12 PM PST Fri Oct 30
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Fri Oct 30
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Fri Oct 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
Now In Effect: CAMARINES SUR, CAMARINES NORTE, CATANDUANES, QUEZON AND POLILLO ISLANDS.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: METRO MANILA, BURIAS IS., ALBAY, MARINDUQUE, ORIENTAL MINDORO, LUBANG IS., BATANGAS, LAGUNA, CAVITE, RIZAL, BATAAN, PAMPANGA, ZAMBALES, TARLAC, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, QUIRINO, AND AURORA.

The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: ISABELA, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, BENGUET, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, SORSOGON, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, AND CALAMIAN GROUP.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

8 PM (12 GMT) 30 OCTOBER: 14.7N 122.9E / 165-205 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / W @ 24 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 31 OCTOBER: 14.9N 120.2E / 130-160 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 24 KPH - LANDFALL
8 AM (00 GMT) 01 NOVEMBER: 14.6N 114.8E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / W @ 24 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 02 NOVEMBER: 14.1N 109.5E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / W @ 24 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) FRI 30 OCTOBER POSITION: 15.1N 125.9E.
*TYPHOON MIRINAE HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND SUSTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS.
THOUGH THE CYCLONE STILL HAS SOME WESTWARD BLOWING CONVECTION,
INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, A SMALL
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT HAS ENABLED CONTINUED RADIAL OUTFLOW. WHILE
MIRINAE WAS PREVIOUSLY MAINTAINING A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN
THAT MADE POSITIONING USING INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY DIFFICULT,
IT HAS RECENTLY STARTED TO DEVELOP MORE OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE.
THEREFORE, IN COMBINATION WITH THE 292259Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE, THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
SIMILARLY, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONSISTENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES OF 90 KNOTS...(more)

>> MIRINAE, meaning: Milky Way. Name contributed by: Korea.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 30 OCTOBER: 15.2N 125.3E / WEST @ 22 kph / 150 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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LATEST 6-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): NEW!!!

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=TWENTYTHRE)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY MIRINAE (SANTI)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm