Monday, October 12, 2009

TS PARMA (PEPENG) makes landfall over Hainan... [Update #039 ]

 


for Monday, 12 October 2009 [5:33 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun October 11 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS PARMA (PEPENG).


PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 60 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 039

6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Mon 12 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #059
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm PARMA (PEPENG) still traversing Hainan...dumping heavy to extreme rainfall across the island.

    *Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to weaken into a TD after crossing Hainan Island and exiting through the Gulf of Tonkin. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows PARMA moving into the Gulf of Tonkin late tonight...and dissipating over Vietnam tomorrow evening or on Wednesday Oct 14.

    + Effects: PARMA's heavy circulation particularly its thick rainbands remains over Hainan Island and portions of Western Guangdong...these rainbands expected to reach Vietnam tomorrow. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm (heavy to extreme rain) near the center of PARMA or along mountains slopes particularly along its path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Tropical Storm NEPARTAK [21W] weakens as it continues to track ENE across the Western Pacific Ocean. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
     

    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Mon October 12 2009
    Location of Center: 19.8º N Lat 109.6º E Lon
    Distance 1: 35 km (20 nm) N of Danzhou, Hainan Is.
    Distance 2: 80 km (43 nm) WSW of Haikou, Hainan Is.
    Distance 3: 115 km (63 nm) WNW of Qionghai, Hainan Is.
    Distance 4: 180 km (97 nm) North of Sanya, Hainan Is.
    Distance 5: 420 km (227 nm) ESE of Hanoi, Vietnam
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    65 kph (35 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Gulf of Tonkin-Vietnam
    Size (in Diameter): 465 km (250 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Mon Oct 12
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    2 PM Mon Oct 12
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Mon Oct 12
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2-days Ahead
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 01
    NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, & 48 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 13 OCTOBER: 19.8N 108.7E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / W @ 09 KPH
  • 2 PM (06 GMT) 13 OCTOBER: 19.9N 107.5E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / W @ 09 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 14 OCTOBER: 19.8N 105.4E / 35-55KPH (LPA) / - @ -- KPH

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 12 OCTOBER POSITION: 19.4N 110.1E.
    *ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PARMA
    HAS MAINTAINED AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER LAND THOUGH
    THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO WANE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
    SUPPORTED BY A 120600Z SURFACE REPORT (ZJHK) LOCATED 45 NM NORTHEAST
    OF THE SYSTEM CENTER WHICH REPORTED 30-KNOT WINDS OUT OF THE EAST.
    PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN THE GULF OF
    TONKIN AS IT ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
    SHEAR. FINALLY, PARMA SHOULD DISSIPATE IN VIETNAM, SOUTH OF HANOI,
    BY TAU 48...
    (
    more)

    >> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms)Name contributed by: Macau, China.
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD PARMA (PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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