for Tuesday, 20 October 2009 [4:52 PM PST]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue October 20 2009):
Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)
LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 165 kph
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 020
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Tue 20 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #026
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) slowing down as it starts heading westward...currently undergoing an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC)...no change in strength.
*Residents and visitors along the Island of Luzon (particularly Northern Luzon) should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to slightly decelerate and turn more westerly to WSW-ward w/in the next 12 to 24 hours. Its wind speed will slighty strengthen back to Category 3 (185 kph) as it moves closer to Northern Luzon due to improved atmospheric conditions (warm ocean moisture & unstable air). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT approaching the northern coast of Cagayan on a WSW direction, as the High Pressure Steering Ridge building off China strengthens and steer the dangerous typhoon. LUPIT shall make landfall over Northern Cagayan on early Thursday evening Oct 22...passing very close to the north of Aparri between 8-9PM Thu. It shall cross Apayao and exit thru Ilocos Norte-Sur Area on Friday afternoon Oct 23, between 2-3PM...and over the South China Sea on Saturday morning, Oct 24. The typhoon shall turn westward while over the South China Sea, in the direction of Hainan Island-Vietnam Area on Sunday Oct 25. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a possibility that LUPIT might track Westward passing thru the Balintang Channel and spare Cagayan & Ilocos Norte from a direct hit. This scenario is likely if the high pressure steering ridge located off Eastern China weakens. The probability of this alternate forecast still remains fair. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
+ Effects: LUPIT's large circulation has become slightly stable. The eye remains cloud-filled as undergoes an Eyewall Replacement as shown on current satellite images. Its outer & inner rain bands remains at sea...not yet affecting any major islands at this time. LUPIT may begin to affect Northern Luzon tomorrow afternoon or evening (Oct 21) - if the forecast movement continues...deteriorating weather conditions expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Tue October 20 2009
Location of Eye: 20.4º N Lat 129.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 750 km (405 nm) East of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 815 km (440 nm) ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 845 km (455 nm) NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 855 km (460 nm) NE of Ilagan City
Distance 5: 885 km (478 nm) NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 935 km (505 nm) ENE of Laoag City
Distance 7: 990 km (535 nm) NNE of Naga City
Distance 8: 1,075 km (580 nm) NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph (95 kts) near the Eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph (115 kts)
Rainbands' Rain Rate: 2 to 30 mm/hr (.02 to 1.2 in/hr) new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.8-2.6 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Extreme Northern Luzon
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 34 ft (10.3 m)
T2K TrackMap #018 (for Public): 5 PM PST Tue Oct 20
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Tue Oct 20
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Tue Oct 20
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
Now In Effect: BATANES ISLAND GROUP, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN ISLANDS, & ISABELA.
The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning tomorrow afternoon (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
Now In Effect: ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, APAYAO, ABRA, KALINGA, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, BENGUET, LA UNION, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, AURORA, NORTHERN AURORA, & POLILLO ISLAND.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight or tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves) that could reach a high of 10 feet.
JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:
2 AM (18 GMT) 21 OCTOBER: 20.2N 127.9E / 185-230 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / WSW @ 17 KPH
<<<Typhoon2000.
Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on RAMIL!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue October 20 2009):
Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)
LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 165 kph
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 020
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Tue 20 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #026
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
*Residents and visitors along the Island of Luzon (particularly Northern Luzon) should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to slightly decelerate and turn more westerly to WSW-ward w/in the next 12 to 24 hours. Its wind speed will slighty strengthen back to Category 3 (185 kph) as it moves closer to Northern Luzon due to improved atmospheric conditions (warm ocean moisture & unstable air). The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT approaching the northern coast of Cagayan on a WSW direction, as the High Pressure Steering Ridge building off China strengthens and steer the dangerous typhoon. LUPIT shall make landfall over Northern Cagayan on early Thursday evening Oct 22...passing very close to the north of Aparri between 8-9PM Thu. It shall cross Apayao and exit thru Ilocos Norte-Sur Area on Friday afternoon Oct 23, between 2-3PM...and over the South China Sea on Saturday morning, Oct 24. The typhoon shall turn westward while over the South China Sea, in the direction of Hainan Island-Vietnam Area on Sunday Oct 25. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a possibility that LUPIT might track Westward passing thru the Balintang Channel and spare Cagayan & Ilocos Norte from a direct hit. This scenario is likely if the high pressure steering ridge located off Eastern China weakens. The probability of this alternate forecast still remains fair. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.
+ Effects: LUPIT's large circulation has become slightly stable. The eye remains cloud-filled as undergoes an Eyewall Replacement as shown on current satellite images. Its outer & inner rain bands remains at sea...not yet affecting any major islands at this time. LUPIT may begin to affect Northern Luzon tomorrow afternoon or evening (Oct 21) - if the forecast movement continues...
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Tue October 20 2009
Location of Eye: 20.4º N Lat 129.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 750 km (405 nm) East of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 815 km (440 nm) ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 845 km (455 nm) NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 855 km (460 nm) NE of Ilagan City
Distance 5: 885 km (478 nm) NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 6: 935 km (505 nm) ENE of Laoag City
Distance 7: 990 km (535 nm) NNE of Naga City
Distance 8: 1,075 km (580 nm) NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph (95 kts) near the Eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph (115 kts)
Rainbands' Rain Rate: 2 to 30 mm/hr (.02 to 1.2 in/hr) new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 6-8 feet [1.8-2.6 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Extreme Northern Luzon
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 34 ft (10.3 m)
T2K TrackMap #018 (for Public): 5 PM PST Tue Oct 20
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Tue Oct 20
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Tue Oct 20
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
Now In Effect: BATANES ISLAND GROUP, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN ISLANDS, & ISABELA.
The above areas will experience stormy weather beginning tomorrow afternoon (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
Now In Effect: ILOCOS NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, APAYAO, ABRA, KALINGA, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, BENGUET, LA UNION, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, AURORA, NORTHERN AURORA, & POLILLO ISLAND.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning tonight or tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides..
2 AM (18 GMT) 21 OCTOBER: 20.2N 127.9E / 185-230 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / WSW @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 21 OCTOBER: 19.7N 126.1E / 185-230 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / W @ 17 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 22 OCTOBER: 18.9N 122.6E / 175-215 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / WSW @ 09 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 23 OCTOBER: 18.1N 120.8E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WSW @ 09 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 22 OCTOBER: 18.9N 122.6E / 175-215 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / WSW @ 09 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 23 OCTOBER: 18.1N 120.8E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WSW @ 09 KPH
REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) TUE 20 OCTOBER POSITION: 20.4N 129.7E.
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS TY
22W'S EYE HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME VISIBLE PINPOINTING ITS POSITION
WITH HIGH ACCURACY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS VERY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ESPECIALLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE THAT
IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TYPHOON IS DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS AND
HAS DEVELOPED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE. ADDITIONALLY, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS HELPED SUSTAIN ITS INTENSITY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS INTERPOLATED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES (T5.5/6.0),
PGTW (T5.0/5.0) AND RJTD (T4.5/4.5). TY 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EXTENSION TO
THE NORTH. IT IS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN THE CURRENT STEERING FLOW PATTERN.
THEREAFTER, THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE TYPHOON ON A MORE EQUATORWARD
TRACK. THIS FLOW WILL BRING TY 22W INTO NORTHERN LUZON BY TAU 60.
INTERACTION WITH THE LANDMASS OF LUZON WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT WEAKENING
BUT TY 22W SHOULD REINTENSIFY AFTER IT REEMERGES IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA BY TAU 96 DUE TO WARM WATERS AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE WBAR AND TCLAPS SOLUTIONS
DEPICT IMMEDIATE NORTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. GFS AND GFDN ALSO DO SOMETHING SIMILAR AT MID-RANGE...(more)
>> LUPIT, meaning: Cruel; viciousness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
____________
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
> 4 PM (08 GMT) 20 OCTOBER: 20.4N 129.4E / WEST @ 15 kph / 195 kph
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.
____________
RECENT TYPHOON2000.
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/ ) ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.
NOTE:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
Copyright © 2009 Typhoon2000.
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