Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) drifting NNE slowly over the Philippine Sea... [Update #012]

for Sunday, 18 October 2009 [6:34 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri October 16 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 170 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr

TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 012
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sun 17 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #016
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) now a 215-km/hr Category 4 system...drifting slowly NNE across the Philippine Sea...May shift back to its Westerly track w/in 24 to 36 hours. The threat to Northern Luzon continues.

*Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to slow down further for the next 24 hours, as it starts its Westerly back-track, as the passing mid-level low pressure trough off Japan leaves LUPIT. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT accelerating West to WSW, as a new High Pressure Steering Ridge building off China strengthens and moves across east of Taiwan. This ridge will steer LUPIT into Extreme Northern Luzon & South China Sea from Tuesday until Friday (Oct 19-23), reaching the Category 5 treshold strength (250 kph). LUPIT shall pass very close to the coastal beach front areas of Northern Cagayan and Ilocos Norte, with a close approach of about 10 to 15 km. to the north of Pagudpod, Ilocos Norte on Thursday morning, Oct 22nd. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a possibility that LUPIT may do a counter-clockwise loop and track more WSW-ward than forecasted with a strike across Central Luzon. This scenario is likely if the high pressure steering ridge located off Eastern China strengthens more. This alternate forecast remains low at this time. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation remains impressive and large, w/ a 22-km. slightly Irregular Eye. Its rain bands remains at sea and is not affecting any major islands at this time. This typhoon may begin to affect Northern Luzon - if the forecast track becomes a reality, thus deteriorating weathern conditions can be expected beginning late Monday (Oct 19) or early Tuesday (Oct 20). 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Mon October 18 2009
Location of Eye: 17.0º N Lat 132.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 985 km (532 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 1,085 km (585 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 3: 1,135 km (613 nm) ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 1,170 km (632 nm) ESE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 1,175 km (635 nm) ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 6: 1,270 km (685 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 215 kph (115 kts) near the Eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 260 kph (140 kts)
Rainbands' Rain Rate: 25-50 mm/hr (1-2 in/hr) new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 13-18 feet [4.0-5.5 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NNE @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Extreme Northern Luzon
Size (in Diameter): 850 km (460 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft (7.6 m)
T2K TrackMap #010 (for Public): 6 AM PST Sun Oct 18
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Sun Oct 18
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sun Oct 18
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 18 OCTOBER: 17.2N 132.7E / 220-270 KPH (TY-Cat 4) / N @ 05 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 19 OCTOBER: 17.8N 132.7E / 230-280 KPH (TY-Cat 4) / WNW @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 20 OCTOBER: 18.8N 129.9E / 250-305 KPH (STY-Cat 5) / W @ 17 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 21 OCTOBER: 19.0N 126.1E / 250-305 KPH (STY-Cat 5) / W @ 19 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) SUN 18 OCTOBER POSITION: 16.7N 132.5E.
*ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
MARKED WITH A RAGGED EYE. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE OUTFLOW AND BANDING
IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BECOMING DEFORMED DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. A 171629Z TRMM IMAGE
SHOWS A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC WITH BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SIDES OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND
CONTINUES TO ERODE THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST, TY 22W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND EVEN TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AROUND TAU 24, THE STR
WILL BUILD BACK IN AND THE SYSTEM WILL NO LONGER FEEL THE INFLUENCE
OF THE MIDLATITUDE SYSTEM AND START TO ACCELERATE TO THE WEST.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE IN
A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, WITH HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW BY THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING BEFORE LEVELING OFF AFTER THE STR BUILDS BACK IN
BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS TRACK; ECMWF, UKMO, GFS AND JGSM ALL HAVE A TRACK THAT VERY
CLOSELY APPROXIMATES THIS FORECAST AND NOGAPS, GFDN AND TCLAPS ALL
DRIVE THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH INTO THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST...(more)

>> LUPIT, meaning: Cruel; viciousness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 OCTOBER: 16.8N 132.5E / NW Slowly / 160 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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