Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) reaches Category 5... [Update #015]

for Monday, 19 October 2009 [5:52 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun October 18 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on STY LUPIT (RAMIL)

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 250 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 215 kph
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 170 km/hr

SUPER TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 015
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Mon 19 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #020
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Super Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL) gained more intensity as it slows down further...attains Category 5 classification. w/ winds of 250-km/hr...threat to Northern Luzon continues.

*Residents and visitors along the Island of Luzon (Northern Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to slow down further for the next 06-12 hours, as the influence of the mid-level low pressure trough off Japan on this system dissipates. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT returning back to its Westward path, as the High Pressure Steering Ridge building off China strengthens and extends across Ryukyu & Okinawan Islands. This ridge will steer LUPIT into Extreme Northern Luzon & South China Sea from Tuesday until Friday (Oct 20-23), with decreasing strength but still a very strong system. LUPIT shall dive more WSW, passing very close to the coastal beach front areas of Northern Cagayan and Ilocos Norte, with a close approach of about 10 to 25 km. to the north of Pagudpod, Ilocos Norte on Thursday afternoon or evening, Oct 22nd. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a possibility that LUPIT might track more WSW-ward than forecasted with a strike across Northern or Central Luzon. This scenario is likely if the high pressure steering ridge located off Eastern China strengthens more and dig deeper southward. This alternate forecast remains low at this time. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: LUPIT's large circulation continues to exhibit impressive convective bands in all quadrants, w/ a 50-km. Round Eye. Its outer & inner rain bands remains at sea...not affecting any major islands at this time. LUPIT may begin to affect Northern Luzon beginning late Tuesday (Oct 20) or early Wednesday (Oct 21) - if the forecast track becomes a reality, thus deteriorating weather conditions can be expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Mon October 19 2009
Location of Eye: 18.1º N Lat 134.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 1,190 km (643 nm) NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 1,290 km (695 nm) NE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 3: 1,315 km (710 nm) ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 1,320 km (712 nm) ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 1,330 km (718 nm) ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 6: 1,335 km (720 nm) ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 7: 1,460 km (790 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 250 kph (135 kts) near the Eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 305 kph (165 kts)
Rainbands' Rain Rate: 2 to 30 mm/hr (.02 to 1.2 in/hr) new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 5
Coastal Storm Surge Height: >18 feet [>5.5 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 919 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NE @ 04 kph (02 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Extreme Northern Luzon
Size (in Diameter): 905 km (490 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
T2K TrackMap #013 (for Public): 6 AM PST Mon Oct 19
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Mon Oct 19
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Mon Oct 19
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 19 OCTOBER: 18.8N 134.2E / 250-305 KPH (STY-Cat 5) / NW @ 11 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 20 OCTOBER: 19.4N 133.2E / 240-295 KPH (STY-Cat 4) / W @ 17 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 21 OCTOBER: 19.7N 129.1E / 230-280 KPH (TY-Cat 4) / W @ 20 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 22 OCTOBER: 19.2N 124.4E / 220-270 KPH (TY-Cat 4) / W @ 20 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) MON 19 OCTOBER POSITION: 18.0N 134.2E.
*RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH A
DEEP, SYMMETRIC RING OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING A LARGE, WELL FORMED
EYE. MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM ARE
ALSO EVIDENT, AS IS STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST. AN 181644Z AMSR-E PASS SHOWS A RING OF CONVECTION AROUND
THE EYE WITH SOME INDICATION OF A MOAT SEPARATING THE RING FROM THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BANDING. ALSO SEEN IN THE AMSR-E PASS
IS CONTINUED DEFORMATION OF THE INFLOW AND BANDING ON THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT DUE TO PASSAGE OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
INTENSITY IS BASED ON ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES. POSITION
IS BASED ON FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD, AND THE POSITION SHOWS A TRACK
THAT IS BECOMING MORE POLEWARD. AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EAST OF
STY 22W BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHWEST, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TO A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK AROUND TAU 12 AND ACCELERATE UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR. STRONG RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN CHINA WILL CAUSE
THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST AND PASS NEAR THE
NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IMPROVING WITH MOST
MODELS TURNING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD BY TAU 12, WITH VARYING DEGREES
OF TURN RATE. THE ONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION IS WBAR WHICH CONTINUES TO
BRING THE SYSTEM INTO THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW AND TO THE
NORTHEAST...(more)

>> LUPIT, meaning: Cruel; viciousness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 19 OCTOBER: 18.0N 134.0E / NW Slowly / 175 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on STY LUPIT (RAMIL)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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