Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon LUPIT (RAMIL)

for Sunday, 18 October 2009 [6:08 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun October 18 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on STY LUPIT (RAMIL)

LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 240 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 185 kph
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr

SUPER TYPHOON LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 014
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sun 18 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #018
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

LUPIT (RAMIL) has rapidly intensified...now classified as a Super Typhoon, with 1-min. avg winds of 240 km/hr...still heading ENE across the Philippine Sea.

*Residents and visitors along Luzon (Northern Philippines) should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to slow down further for the next 24 hours, as the influence of the mid-level low pressure trough off Japan on this system dissipates. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT returning back to its Westward path, as the High Pressure Steering Ridge building off China strengthens and moves across east of Taiwan. This ridge will steer LUPIT into Extreme Northern Luzon & South China Sea from Tuesday until Friday (Oct 19-23), reaching the Category 5 treshold strength (250 kph). LUPIT shall pass very close to the coastal beach front areas of Northern Cagayan and Ilocos Norte, with a close approach of about 5 to 15 km. to the north of Pagudpod, Ilocos Norte on Thursday afternoon, Oct 22nd. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a possibility that LUPIT might do a clockwise loop and track more WSW-ward than forecasted with a strike across Northern or Central Luzon. This scenario is likely if the high pressure steering ridge located off Eastern China strengthens more. This alternate forecast remains low at this time. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

+ Effects: LUPIT's large circulation has become more impressive, w/ a 40-km. slightly irregular Eye. Its outer & inner rain bands remains at sea...not affecting any major islands at this time. LUPIT may begin to affect Northern Luzon - if the forecast track becomes a reality, thus deteriorating weathern conditions can be expected beginning Tuesday (Oct 20). 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated accumulations of 400 mm or more (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT particularly along its projected path.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sun October 18 2009
Location of Eye: 17.6º N Lat 134.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 1,140 km (615 nm) NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 1,240 km (670 nm) NE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 3: 1,275 km (690 nm) ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 1,305 km (705 nm) East of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 1,305 km (705 nm) ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 6: 1,415 km (765 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 240 kph (130 kts) near the Eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph (160 kts)
Rainbands' Rain Rate: 2 to 30 mm/hr (.02 to 1.2 in/hr) new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 13-18 feet [4.0-5.5 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: ENE @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Extreme Northern Luzon
Size (in Diameter): 905 km (490 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 27 ft (8.2 m)
T2K TrackMap #012 (for Public): 6 PM PST Sun Oct 18
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Sun Oct 18
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Sun Oct 18
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 AM (18 GMT) 19 OCTOBER: 17.6N 134.2E / 250-305 KPH (STY-Cat 5) / NNW @ 07 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 19 OCTOBER: 18.4N 134.0E / 250-305 KPH (STY-Cat 5) / W @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 20 OCTOBER: 18.9N 130.2E / 250-305 KPH (STY-Cat 5) / W @ 19 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 21 OCTOBER: 18.9N 126.0E / 240-295 KPH (STY-Cat 4) / W @ 20 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) SUN 18 OCTOBER POSITION: 17.3N 133.5E.
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPID IMPROVEMENT
IN THE STRUCTURE AND INCREASE IN SIZE OF THE EYE SUGGESTING THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE A RAPID INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS AND IS NOW BEING CLASSIFIED AS A SUPER TYPHOON. THE TRACK HAS
CONTINUED TO SHIFT TO A MORE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN NORTH OF
LUPIT FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE TROUGH IS WEAKENING AND MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD, AND HAS LED TO A WEAKENING OF THE MID-LEVEL SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OF LUPIT, AND THE RECENT TRACK
CHANGES OBSERVED. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR STY 22W TO KEEP ON AN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, SLOWLY SHIFTING
TO A NORTHWARD TRACK AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT AND THE STR TO
THE EAST BUILDS. IT APPEARS THAT LUPIT WILL SLOWLY LOOP BACK TO THE
WEST AS A MID-LEVEL STR BUILDS FROM CENTRAL CHINA OVER THE WESTERN
PACIFIC, NORTH OF STY 22W. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR AND TCLP,
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...(more)

>> LUPIT, meaning: Cruel; viciousness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 18 OCTOBER: 17.4N 133.8E / Almost Stationary / 175 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on STY LUPIT (RAMIL)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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