Monday, October 26, 2009

TS LUPIT (RAMIL) - Final Update

 


for Monday, 26 October 2009 [6:35 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon October 26 2009):

Ending 6-hrly web advisories (except 12:00 AM) on this system as it becomes Extratropical.


LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 035 [FINAL]

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Mon 26 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #048
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm LUPIT (RAMIL) fast becoming an Extratropical Cyclone as it moves quickly northeastward.

    *This is the Final Advisory on this system.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to complete its Extratropical transition late today.

    + Effects: N/A

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    Tropical Disturbance 95W [LPA]
    is now the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) based on JTWC's analysis...will developed into a Tropical Depression within the next 06 to 24 hours. Currently located near 1at 12.5N lon 152.3E...or about 820 km ESE of Guam...1,875 km East of P.A.R...2,910 km East of Visayas. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 40 kph near the center. The latest (8PM Oct 25) European Forecast Guidance Model (ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), which is the better and most-reliable guidance model this 2009 - continues to show this system heading westward quickly (aka. "Straight-Runner" track) into the Philippine Sea this week. Becoming a dangerous typhoon as it approaches Luzon, Philippines on Thursday, October 29 and striking Bicol Region-Southern Tagalog-NCR Area on Halloween Weekend, Friday-Saturday (Oct 30 to 31). Please take note that this model changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

    Kindly click the
    T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Mon October 26 2009
    Location of Center: 27.0º N Lat 132.5º E Lon
    Distance 1: 450 km (243 nm) ENE of Okinawa, Japan
    Distance 2: 1,295 km (702 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    85 kph (45 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
    24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 100-150 mm new!
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: NE @ 33 kph (18 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Southern Honshu's Coast
    Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) / Very Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 ft (6.7 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Mon Oct 26
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    2 AM Mon Oct 26
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Mon Oct 26
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2-days Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, & 36 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 26 OCTOBER: 29.8N 136.0E / 75-95 KPH (TS) / NE @ 58 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 27 OCTOBER: 34.2N 141.5E / 75-95 KPH (TS) / NE @ 68 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 28 OCTOBER: 39.7N 147.7E / 75-95 KPH (XT) / ... @ .. KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) MON 26 OCTOBER POSITION: 26.8N 131.7E.
    *ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
    STARTING TO ELONGATE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION
    HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONALLY, LUPIT IS SHOWING THE SIGNS OF
    MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PGTW HAS STARTED TO USE THE
    EXTRATROPICAL FIX METHOD, YIELDING A VALUE OF 45 KNOTS. THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS A COMPILATION OF THE PGTW AND RJTD POSITION FIXES AS
    WELL AS THE JAPAN RADAR FIX. LUPIT HAS STARTED TO INTERACT WITH THE
    BAROCLINIC ZONE, WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES,
    AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO,
    JAPAN, BY TAU 24..
    (
    more)

    >> LUPIT, meaning: Cruel; viciousnessName contributed by: Philippines.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    LATEST 24-HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): NEW!!! 


    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=LUPIT)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS LUPIT (RAMIL)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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