Wednesday, October 14, 2009

TD 22W (UNNAMED) - Update #002

 


for Wednesday, 14 October 2009 [6:25 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue October 13 2009):

Now issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on the newly-formed TD 22W (UNNAMED)


22W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002

6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Wed 14 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #002
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Depression 22W (UNNAMED) continues to consolidate as it moves quickly towards the Southern Marianas.

    *Residents and visitors along the Mariana Island Chain should closely monitor the progress of 22W.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: 22W is expected to turn quickly WNW-ward, within the easterly flow of the strong high pressure north of it. It shall become a Tropical Storm tomorrow morning before passing to the south of Guam tomorrow afternoon. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows 22W heading steadily WNW towards the Philippine Sea...becoming a Category 1 Typhoon as it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday Oct 19. *ECMWF 10-Day Extended Long-Range Forecast: 22W is expected to slow down as it approaches the Island of Luzon on Tuesday Oct 20, intensifying into a Category 3 or 4 Typhoon...It shall make landfall over Northern Luzon or over Isabela Wednesday evening, Oct 21 and exit thru Benguet and La Union early Thursday morning, Oct 22. Please be reminded that the ECMWF model run changes every 12 hours, so a shift to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered.

    + Effects: 22W's broad circulation continues to consolidate while moving Westward. Its outer bands is expected to move into Southern Marianas beginning tonight - bringing scattered rains w/ squalls and thunderstorms. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of 22W particularly along its projected path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA) now moving across Jintotolo Channel, just north of Panay Island...its rainbands ahead of its center, continues to spread across the whole of the Visayas, Bicol Region, Southern & Central Luzon including Metro Manila...currently located near lat 11.8N lon 123.0E...or about 30 km NE of Roxas City...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...moving WNW @ 28 kph towards Romblon & Mindoro area. This system may likely become a Tropical Cyclone once it reaches the South China Sea tomorrow.

    Kindly click the
    T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Wed October 14 2009
    Location of Center: 10.3º N Lat 150.2º E Lon
    Distance 1: 680 km (367 nm) SE of Guam, CNMI
    Distance 2: 1,330 km (718 nm) ENE of Yap, FSM
    Distance 3: 1,665 km (900 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 4: 2,690 km (1,452 nm) East of Visayas, PH
    Distance 5: 2,960 km (1,598 nm) ESE of Naga City, PH
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    55 kph (30 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: West @ 26 kph (14 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Southern Marianas
    Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
    NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 PM PST Wed Oct 14
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    2 PM Wed Oct 14
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 14 OCTOBER: 10.5N 147.9E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 26 KPH
  • 2 PM (06 GMT) 15 OCTOBER: 11.3N 145.2E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 20 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 16 OCTOBER: 13.0N 141.0E / 110-140 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 11 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 17 OCTOBER: 13.9N 138.6E / 130-160 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WNW @ 11 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 14 OCTOBER POSITION: 9.8N 150.6E.
    *ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
    THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE
    WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. OVER THE PAST 06
    HOURS, TD 22W HAS ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
    A 140316Z AMSRE 37H PASS SHOWS SEVERAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
    INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAVORABLE
    ENVIRONMENT FOR OUTFLOW WITH TD 22W LOCATED IN A REGION OF UPPER
    LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS LOCATED ON THE
    WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS STARTING TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTH
    AROUND TO THE EASTERN HALF...
    (
    more)

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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD 22W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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