Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD PARMA (PEPENG)

for Sunday, 11 October 2009 [12:49 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat October 10 2009):

Ending the 6-hrly SMS updates as the system moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Continuing issuing 6-hrly web advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TD PARMA (PEPENG).

PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 kph
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 60 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 042
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Sun 11 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #054
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Depression PARMA (PEPENG) slightly improving while moving WSW across the South China Sea...threatens Hainan Island and Vietnam.

*Residents and visitors along Hainan Island and Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to regain Tropical Storm Status and make landfall over Hainan Island tomorrow afternoon, with forecast wind strength of 65 kph. The 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows PARMA weakening into a Tropical Depression after crossing Hainan and shall be over the Gulf of Tonkin Tuesday Oct 13. It shall make its final landfall and dissipate over Vietnam on Wednesday Oct 14.

+ Effects: PARMA's slightly improved circulation contiues to move closer to Hainan and Vietnam...with its low-level circulation center (LLCC) now closer to its main convection. Its outer rainbands is now moving into Hainan Island...shall reach Vietnam later tonight. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA or along mountains slopes particularly along its path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Storm NEPARTAK [21W] quasi-stationary south of Chichi Jima Island...currently located near 22.4 N lat 142.4 E Lon...about 290 km SSE of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima). With maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center. This storm is not a threat to any land areas at this time. Click here to view the latest T2K advisory.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sun October 11 2009
Location of Center: 17.2º N Lat 113.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 725 km (390 nm) West of Vigan City
Distance 2: 570 km (308 nm) SSW of Hong Kong
Distance 3: 450 km (243 nm) ESE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Hainan-Vietnam Area
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Sun Oct 11
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Sun Oct 11
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Sun Oct 11
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 01
NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

8 PM (12 GMT) 11 OCTOBER: 17.7N 112.3E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 15 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 12 OCTOBER: 18.4N 110.8E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 13 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 13 OCTOBER: 19.2N 107.9E / 45-65KPH (TD) / W @ 11 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 14 OCTOBER: 19.5N 105.5E / 35-55 KPH (LPA) / - @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 11 OCTOBER POSITION: 17.5N 114.0E.
*TD PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY INTO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT - LOW VWS AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES - BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO HAINAN. AFTER
TAU 36, TD 19W WILL CROSS INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN THEN MAKE LANDFALL
SOUTH OF HANOI AND DISSIPATE...(more)

>> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms). Name contributed by: Macau, China.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD PARMA (PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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