Tuesday, October 13, 2009

PARMA (PEPENG) rapidly becomes a Typhoon... [Update #041]

 


for Tuesday, 13 October 2009 [12:30 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue October 13 2009):

PARMA, its fantastic character as this season's longest-living and erratic tropical cyclone - has made another extraordinary move as it enters the Gulf of Tonkin - from a 65 kph TS to a Category 1 Typhoon in a span of only 3 hours!!! Currently issuing 6-hrly web advisories (except 12:00 AM) on this unique system.


PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 kph
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TYPHOON PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 041

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Tue 13 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC SATELLITE FIX
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Extraordinary PARMA (PEPENG) rapidly gained strength as it moves slowly across the Gulf of Tonkin...now a Cateogory 1 Typhoon...endangers Northern Vietnam. The slightly warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the gulf w/ improved atmospheric environment over the cyclone has helped it to rapidly developed in a span of only 3 hours!

    *Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of NEPARTAK.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to turn Westward across the Gulf of Tonkin today before making its last and final landfall over Northern Vietnam tomorrow morning. It shall dissipate tomorrow evening or on Thursday October 15.

    + Effects: PARMA's circulation has dramatically improved during the past 6 hours, with the development of an EYE. The Eyewall and innerbands is now moving closer to Northern Vietnam...Typhoon conditions can be expected beginning tonight until tomorrow. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm (heavy to extreme rain) near the center of PARMA or along mountains slopes particularly along its path. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA) organizing over the Philippine Sea...currently located near lat 10.0 lon 131.0E...or about 670 km ESE of Tacloban City, Leyte...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center...moving WNW @ 15 kph towards Eastern Visayas. This system will be closely monitored for possible development into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours.

    (2) Tropical Storm NEPARTAK [21W] accelerating NE across the Western Pacific Ocean.
    Click here to view the latest T2K advisory.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Tue October 13 2009
    Location of Center: 20.2º N Lat 108.3º E Lon
    Distance 1: 130 km (70 nm) NNW of Dongfang, Hainan Is.
    Distance 2: 155 km (83 nm) WNW of Danzhou, Hainan Is.
    Distance 3: 275 km (148 nm) ESE of Hanoi, Vietnam
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    120 kph (65 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
    Projected Area of Impact: Northern Vietnam
    Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Tue Oct 13
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    8 AM Tue Oct 13
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Tue Oct 13
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2-days Ahead
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Image: Latest Rainrate 01
    NASA-JAXA TMI Image: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, & 48 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8PM (12 GMT) 13 OCTOBER: 20.1N 107.7E / W @ 9 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 14 OCTOBER: 20.0N 106.7E / W @ 9 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 15 OCTOBER: 19.4N 104.4E / - @ -- KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 13 OCTOBER POSITION: 20.0N 108.5E.
    *THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN
    TOWARDS THE VIETNAM COAST. 19W SEEMS TO HAVE LOST SOME ORGANIZATION
    UPON MOVING BACK OVER WATER, AS SEEN IN RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
    IMAGERY; THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN SOME ORGANIZATION BEFORE
    MAKING LANDFALL, BUT IS UNLIKELY TO REINTENSIFY...
    (
    more)

    >> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms)Name contributed by: Macau, China.
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
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    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY PARMA (PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
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