for Friday, 23 October 2009 [12:10 PM PST]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed October 21 2009):
Continuing issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)
LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 kph
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 028
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Fri 23 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #037
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
LUPIT (RAMIL) weakens into a Tropical Storm as dry air continues to feed into its weakening circulation. Inner rainbands still spreading across Cagayan and Batanes Group.
*Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue drifting very slowly westward, closer to the Northern Coast of Cagayan. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT turning very slowly WNW to NW as it passes about 75 km north of Northern Cagayan on Monday (Oct 26) and shall be over the Balintang Channel on Tuesday through Wednesday (Oct 27-28) with decreasing wind speeds. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track abruptly North to NNE and recurve towards Southern Japan, away from Extreme Northern Luzon. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high, as almost all of the various numerical guidance models continues to show this scenario. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.
+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation has continued to weaken as strong dry air from the west affects the system. The core remains at sea with its inner rainbands spreading across Batanes, Calayan Island and Cagayan. Light to moderate rains w/ tropical storm force winds not exceeding 85 kph can be expected along these bands. While the outer rainbands continues to affect the rest of Northern Luzon - where overcast skies along w/ light passing rains & gale-force winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 300 to 500 mm (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT. Click here to view the latest eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.
[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Fri October 23 2009
Location of Center: 19.1º N Lat 123.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 185 km (100 nm) NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 190 km (103 nm) East of Calayan Island
Distance 3: 205 km (110 nm) SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 235 km (127 nm) NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 300 km (162 nm) ENE of Laoag City
Distance 6: 550 km (297 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 7: 610 km (330 nm) North of Naga City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 300-500 mm new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Projected Area of Impact: Balintang Channel-Batanes
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 31 ft (9.4 m)
T2K TrackMap #025 (for Public): 12 PM PST Fri Oct 23
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Fri Oct 23
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 AM Fri Oct 23
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
In Effect: BATANES GROUP, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN ISLANDS, APAYAO, & ILOCOS NORTE.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: ILOCOS SUR, KALINGA, ISABELA, ABRA, & MT. PROVINCE.
The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: LA UNION, BENGUET, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO & NORTHERN AURORA.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves) that could reach a high of 5 feet or more .
JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:
8 PM (12 GMT) 23 OCTOBER: 19.0N 123.1E / 110-140 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 02 KPH
<<<Typhoon2000.
Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on RAMIL!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed October 21 2009):
Continuing issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)
LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 kph
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 028
12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Fri 23 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #037
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)
*Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).
*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.
+ Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue drifting very slowly westward, closer to the Northern Coast of Cagayan. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT turning very slowly WNW to NW as it passes about 75 km north of Northern Cagayan on Monday (Oct 26) and shall be over the Balintang Channel on Tuesday through Wednesday (Oct 27-28) with decreasing wind speeds. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track abruptly North to NNE and recurve towards Southern Japan, away from Extreme Northern Luzon. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high, as almost all of the various numerical guidance models continues to show this scenario. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.
+ Effects: LUPIT's circulation has continued to weaken as strong dry air from the west affects the system. The core remains at sea with its inner rainbands spreading across Batanes, Calayan Island and Cagayan. Light to moderate rains w/ tropical storm force winds not exceeding 85 kph can be expected along these bands. While the outer rainbands continues to affect the rest of Northern Luzon - where overcast skies along w/ light passing rains & gale-force winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Fri October 23 2009
Location of Center: 19.1º N Lat 123.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 185 km (100 nm) NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 190 km (103 nm) East of Calayan Island
Distance 3: 205 km (110 nm) SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 235 km (127 nm) NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 300 km (162 nm) ENE of Laoag City
Distance 6: 550 km (297 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 7: 610 km (330 nm) North of Naga City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 300-500 mm new!
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Projected Area of Impact: Balintang Channel-Batanes
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 31 ft (9.4 m)
T2K TrackMap #025 (for Public): 12 PM PST Fri Oct 23
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Fri Oct 23
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 AM Fri Oct 23
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
In Effect: BATANES GROUP, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN ISLANDS, APAYAO, & ILOCOS NORTE.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: ILOCOS SUR, KALINGA, ISABELA, ABRA, & MT. PROVINCE.
The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: LA UNION, BENGUET, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO & NORTHERN AURORA.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides..
8 PM (12 GMT) 23 OCTOBER: 19.0N 123.1E / 110-140 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 02 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 24 OCTOBER: 19.1N 122.9E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / W @ 02 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 25 OCTOBER: 19.1N 122.5E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 02 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 26 OCTOBER: 19.2N 122.2E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / NW @ 02 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 25 OCTOBER: 19.1N 122.5E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 02 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 26 OCTOBER: 19.2N 122.2E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / NW @ 02 KPH
REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) FRI 23 OCTOBER POSITION: 18.9N 123.4E.
*THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH ERRATIC MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INTERACTION FROM
LAND AND HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...(more)
>> LUPIT, meaning: Cruel; viciousness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
____________
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
> 10 AM (02 GMT) 23 OCTOBER: 18.7N 122.7E / Almost Stationary / 120 kph
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.
____________
RECENT TYPHOON2000.
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/ )
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
> Image source: Wunderground.
LATEST 24-HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): NEW!!!
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.
NOTE:
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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