Friday, October 23, 2009

LUPIT (RAMIL) just a Tropical Storm (TS)... [Update #028]

 


for Friday, 23 October 2009 [12:10 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed October 21 2009):

Continuing issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)


LUPIT (RAMIL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 kph
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM LUPIT [RAMIL/22W/0920]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 028

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Fri 23 October 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #037
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • LUPIT (RAMIL) weakens into a Tropical Storm as dry air continues to feed into its weakening circulation. Inner rainbands still spreading across Cagayan and Batanes Group.

    *Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LUPIT (RAMIL).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: LUPIT is expected to continue drifting very slowly westward, closer to the Northern Coast of Cagayan. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LUPIT turning very slowly WNW to NW as it passes about 75 km north of Northern Cagayan on Monday (Oct 26) and shall be over the Balintang Channel on Tuesday through Wednesday (Oct 27-28) with decreasing wind speeds. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a strong possibility that LUPIT might track abruptly North to NNE and recurve towards Southern Japan, away from Extreme Northern Luzon. The probability of this alternate forecast remains high, as almost all of the various numerical guidance models continues to show this scenario. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other conditions must be considered. So please stay tuned.

    + Effects: LUPIT's circulation has continued to weaken as strong dry air from the west affects the system. The core remains at sea with its inner rainbands spreading across Batanes, Calayan Island and Cagayan. Light to moderate rains w/ tropical storm force winds not exceeding 85 kph can be expected along these bands. While the outer rainbands continues to affect the rest of Northern Luzon - where overcast skies along w/ light passing rains & gale-force winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected. 24-hr total rainfall amounts of 25 to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along its rainbands...with isolated amounts of 300 to 500 mm (very heavy to extreme rain) near the center of LUPIT. Click here to view the latest eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon especially along Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Island Group, Isabela & Ilocos Norte. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern Luzon & Taiwan.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Fri October 23 2009
    Location of Center: 19.1º N Lat 123.3º E Lon
    Distance 1: 185 km (100 nm) NE of Aparri, Cagayan
    Distance 2: 190 km (103 nm) East of Calayan Island
    Distance 3: 205 km (110 nm) SE of Basco, Batanes
    Distance 4: 235 km (127 nm) NE of Tuguegarao City
    Distance 5: 300 km (162 nm) ENE of Laoag City
    Distance 6: 550 km (297 nm) NNE of Metro Manila
    Distance 7: 610 km (330 nm) North of Naga City
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    110 kph (60 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
    24-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 300-500 mm new!
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: Quasi-Stationary
    Projected Area of Impact: Balintang Channel-Batanes
    Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Very Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 31 ft (9.4 m)
    T2K TrackMap #025 (for Public): 12 PM PST Fri Oct 23
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    8 AM Fri Oct 23
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 AM Fri Oct 23
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3) click to know meaning
    In Effect: BATANES GROUP, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN & BABUYAN ISLANDS, APAYAO, & ILOCOS NORTE.

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) click to know meaning
    In Effect: ILOCOS SUR, KALINGA, ISABELA, ABRA, & MT. PROVINCE.

    The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    In Effect: LA UNION, BENGUET, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO & NORTHERN AURORA.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 3, 2 & 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves) that could reach a high of 5 feet or more
     


  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 23 OCTOBER: 19.0N 123.1E / 110-140 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 02 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 24 OCTOBER: 19.1N 122.9E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / W @ 02 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 25 OCTOBER: 19.1N 122.5E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / WNW @ 02 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 26 OCTOBER: 19.2N 122.2E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / NW @ 02 KPH 

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) FRI 23 OCTOBER POSITION: 18.9N 123.4E.
    *THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH ERRATIC MODEL GUIDANCE.
    THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INTERACTION FROM
    LAND AND HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...
    (
    more)

    >> LUPIT, meaning: Cruel; viciousnessName contributed by: Philippines.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
    > 10 AM (02 GMT) 23 OCTOBER: 18.7N 122.7E / Almost Stationary / 120 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    LATEST 24-HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): NEW!!! 


    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=LUPIT)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY LUPIT (RAMIL)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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